A Climate Modelling Primer, Third Edition

As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Third Edition explains the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book assists the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. The accompanying CD contains: A suite of resources for those wishing to learn more about climate modelling. A range of model visualisations. Data from climate models for use in the classroom. Windows and Macintosh programs for an Energy Balance Model. Selected figures from the book for inclusion in presentations and lectures. Suitable for 3rd/4th year undergraduates taking courses in climate modelling, economic forecasting, computer science, environmental science, geography and oceanography. Also of relevance to researchers and professionals working in related disciplines with climate models or who need accessible technical background to climate modelling predictions. A CLIMATE MODELLING PRIMER, 3RD ED.......Page 1 Half-title......Page 2 Title Page......Page 3 Copyright Page......Page 4 Dedication......Page 6 Contents......Page 8 Preface......Page 14 Acknowledgements......Page 16 1.1 The components of climate......Page 17 Introduction and outline of the book......Page 19 The climate system......Page 21 1.2 Climate change assessment......Page 23 1.2.1 The scientific perspective......Page 25 1.2.2 The human perspective......Page 29 1.2.3 Isotopes and climate......Page 34 1.3 Climate forcings......Page 38 Milankovitch variations......Page 39 Solar activity......Page 41 Greenhouse gases......Page 42 Stratospheric ozone......Page 43 Land-surface changes......Page 45 Volcanic eruptions......Page 47 Ocean circulation changes......Page 49 1.4 Climate feedbacks and sensitivity......Page 51 1.4.3 Cloud feedbacks......Page 52 1.4.4 Combining feedback effects......Page 54 1.5 Range of questions for climate modelling......Page 58 Recommended reading......Page 59 Web resources......Page 61 The need for simplification......Page 63 Resolution in time and space......Page 64 2.2 Types of climate models......Page 65 2.2.1 Energy balance climate models......Page 68 2.2.2 One-dimensional radiative–convective climate models......Page 69 2.2.3 Dimensionally-constrained climate models......Page 70 2.2.4 General circulation models......Page 71 2.2.5 Stable isotopes and interactive biogeochemistry......Page 75 2.3 History of climate modelling......Page 79 2.4 Sensitivity of climate models......Page 82 Equilibrium climatic states......Page 83 Stability of model results......Page 84 Equilibrium conditions and transitivity of climate systems......Page 85 Measures of climate model sensitivity......Page 86 2.5 Parameterization of climatic processes......Page 88 Interactions in the climate system......Page 89 2.6 Simulation of the full, interacting climate system: one goal of modelling......Page 92 Recommended reading......Page 93 Web resources......Page 94 3.1 Balancing the planetary radiation budget......Page 97 3.2.1 Zero-dimensional EBMs......Page 98 3.2.2 One-dimensional EBMs......Page 101 3.3 Parameterizing the climate system for energy balance models......Page 102 Albedo......Page 103 Heat transport......Page 104 Description of the EBM......Page 105 3.4.2 BASIC geophysiology......Page 112 3.5 Energy balance models and glacial cycles......Page 115 3.5.1 Milankovitch cycles......Page 117 3.5.2 Snowball Earth......Page 119 3.6 Box models – another form of energy balance model......Page 121 3.6.1 Zonal box models that maximize planetary entropy......Page 122 3.6.2 A simple box model of the ocean–atmosphere......Page 124 3.6.3 A coupled atmosphere, land and ocean energy balance box model......Page 127 3.7 Energy balance models: deceptively simple models......Page 129 Recommended reading......Page 131 Web resources......Page 132 4.1 Why lower complexity?......Page 133 4.2 One-dimensional radiative–convective models......Page 137 The structure of global radiative–convective models......Page 138 4.3 Radiation: the driver of climate......Page 140 4.3.1 Shortwave radiation......Page 142 Shortwave radiation subject to scattering (R s)......Page 144 Shortwave radiation subject to absorption (R a)......Page 145 4.3.2 Longwave radiation......Page 147 4.3.3 Heat balance at the ground......Page 149 4.4 Convective adjustment......Page 150 4.5 Sensitivity experiments with radiative–convective models......Page 152 Sensitivity to humidity......Page 153 Sensitivity to clouds......Page 154 Sensitivity to lapse rate selected for convective adjustment......Page 155 Cloud prediction......Page 156 Model sensitivity......Page 157 Regional and local applications......Page 158 4.7.1 Parameterizations for two-dimensional modelling......Page 159 4.7.2 ‘Column’ processes in two-dimensional statistical dynamical (SD) models......Page 165 4.8.1 An upgraded energy balance model......Page 166 4.8.2 Multi-column RC models......Page 167 4.8.3 A severely truncated spectral general circulation climate model......Page 170 4.8.4 Repeating sectors in a global ‘grid’ model......Page 171 4.8.5 A two-and-a-half-dimensional model: CLIMBER-2......Page 172 4.8.8 EMICs predict future release of radiocarbons from the oceans......Page 174 4.9 Why are some climate modellers Flatlanders?......Page 176 Recommended reading......Page 178 Web resources......Page 179 5.1 Three-dimensional models of the climate system......Page 181 5.2 Modelling the atmosphere......Page 182 5.2.1 Finite grid formulation of atmospheric models......Page 184 5.2.2 Spectral models......Page 186 Representing the atmosphere with waves......Page 187 Structure of a spectral model......Page 188 Truncation......Page 190 5.2.3 Geodesic grids......Page 191 5.2.4 The influence of computer architecture on numerical methods......Page 193 5.2.5 Atmospheric GCM components......Page 194 Radiative transfer......Page 195 Boundary layer......Page 196 Cloud prediction......Page 198 Convection processes......Page 199 Gravity wave drag......Page 203 5.3.1 Background......Page 204 5.3.2 Formulation of three-dimensional ocean models......Page 206 Co-ordinate system......Page 207 5.4 Modelling the cryosphere......Page 211 5.5 Modelling the land surface......Page 215 5.6 Atmospheric chemistry......Page 218 5.7 Coupling models: towards the predictive Earth system model......Page 220 Model complexity comes full circle: using ‘MAGICC’......Page 224 Recommended reading......Page 226 Web resources......Page 228 6.1 Working with climate models......Page 229 6.2 Data interchange......Page 230 6.3 Earth System Modelling Frameworks......Page 232 6.4 Model evaluation......Page 234 6.4.1 Intercomparisons facilitated by technology......Page 235 6.4.2 AMIP and CMIP......Page 236 6.4.3 Radiation and cloud intercomparisons......Page 237 6.4.4 Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS)......Page 238 6.4.5 Comparing carbon-cycle subcomponents of climate models......Page 240 Isotopes quantify the global carbon budget......Page 242 6.4.6 More and more MIPs......Page 244 6.5 Exploitation of climate model predictions......Page 246 6.5.1 Expert assessment......Page 247 Land use change......Page 248 Palaeoclimate and mineral deposits......Page 250 6.5.3 Regional climate prediction......Page 252 6.5.4 Policy development......Page 254 6.6 Integrated assessment models......Page 255 6.7 The future of climate modelling......Page 260 Recommended reading......Page 262 Web resources......Page 264 EBMs and other ‘simple’ models......Page 265 Classic model experiments......Page 266 Clouds and radiation......Page 267 The ocean......Page 268 Coupled models......Page 269 Climate system......Page 270 Feedbacks and forcings......Page 271 A......Page 273 B-C......Page 275 D......Page 276 E......Page 277 F......Page 278 G......Page 279 H-I......Page 280 J-K-L-M......Page 281 N-O......Page 282 P-Q-R......Page 283 S......Page 284 T-U-V-W......Page 286 X-Y-Z......Page 287 Appendix C. About the Primer CD......Page 289 Index......Page 291 As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth Edition is designed to explain the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book will assist the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today's wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. Now in full colour throughout and with the addition of cartoons to enhance student understanding the new edition of this successful textbook enables the student to tackle the difficult subject of climate modeling. "A Climate Modelling Primer, Third Edition is designed to explain the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models." "A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book will assist the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today's wide range of climated models." "Suitable for 3rd/4th year undergraduates taking courses in climate modelling, economic forecasting, computer science, environmental science, geography and oceanography. Also of relevance to researchers and professionals working in related disciplines with climate models, or who need accessible technical background to climate modelling predictions."--Résumé de l'éditeur This Updated Edition Explains The Basis And Mechanisms Of All Types Of Physically Based Climate Models And Prepares The Reader For The Climate Modelling Literature. Climate -- A History Of And Introduction To Climate Models -- Energy Balance Models -- Intermediate Complexity Models -- Coupled Climate System Models -- Practical Climate Modelling. Kendal Mcguffie And Ann Henderson-sellers. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Kendal McGuffie, University of Technology Sydney, Australia Ann Henderson-Sellers, Macquarie University, Australia