Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes

This book presents applied probability and stochastic processes in an elementary but mathematically precise manner, with numerous examples and exercises to illustrate the range of engineering and science applications of the concepts. The book is designed to give the reader an intuitive understanding of probabilistic reasoning, in addition to an understanding of mathematical concepts and principles. The initial chapters present a summary of probability and statistics and then Poisson processes, Markov chains, Markov processes and queuing processes are introduced. Advanced topics include simulation, inventory theory, replacement theory, Markov decision theory, and the use of matrix geometric procedures in the analysis of queues. Included in the second edition are appendices at the end of several chapters giving suggestions for the use of Excel in solving the problems of the chapter. Also new in this edition are an introductory chapter on statistics and a chapter on Poisson processes that includes some techniques used in risk assessment. The old chapter on queues has been expanded and broken into two new chapters: one for simple queuing processes and one for queuing networks. Support is provided through the web site http://apsp.tamu.edu where students will have the answers to odd numbered problems and instructors will have access to full solutions and Excel files for homework. This book is a result of teaching stochastic processes to junior and senior undergr- uates and beginning graduate students over many years. In teaching such a course, we have realized a need to furnish students with material that gives a mathematical presentation while at the same time providing proper foundations to allow students to build an intuitive feel for probabilistic reasoning. We have tried to maintain a b- ance in presenting advanced but understandable material that sparks an interest and challenges students, without the discouragement that often comes as a consequence of not understanding the material. Our intent in this text is to develop stochastic p- cesses in an elementary but mathematically precise style and to provide suf?cient examples and homework exercises that will permit students to understand the range of application areas for stochastic processes. We also practice active learning in the classroom. In other words, we believe that the traditional practice of lecturing continuously for 50 to 75 minutes is not a very effective method for teaching. Students should somehow engage in the subject m- ter during the teaching session. One effective method for active learning is, after at most 20 minutes of lecture, to assign a small example problem for the students to work and one important tool that the instructor can utilize is the computer. So- times we are fortunate to lecture students in a classroom containing computers with a spreadsheet program, usually Microsoft's Excel. Front Matter....Pages i-xii Basic Probability Review....Pages 1-43 Basics of Monte Carlo Simulation....Pages 45-72 Basic Statistical Review....Pages 73-113 Poisson Processes....Pages 115-139 Markov Chains....Pages 141-179 Markov Processes....Pages 181-199 Queueing Processes....Pages 201-225 Queueing Networks....Pages 227-249 Event-Driven Simulation and Output Analyses....Pages 251-284 Inventory Theory....Pages 285-303 Replacement Theory....Pages 305-321 Markov Decision Processes....Pages 323-354 Advanced Queues....Pages 355-379 Back Matter....Pages 1-17