Brexit : causes and consequences

This book offers a comprehensive political assessment of Brexit. Based on a historical review of the role of the United Kingdom in the European Union, the author, a former diplomat at the German embassy in London, presents well-founded insights into arguments in favor and against the Brexit deal and the status quo of the Brexit negotiations. Furthermore, the book discusses the consequences of Brexit - for the UK and the rest of the EU, for security in Europe, and for the transatlantic relationship, as well as for global trade relations and the competitiveness of Europe and the UK. This book offers a unique perspective of Britain's troubled engagement with the continent. Everyone concerned with the future of Britain and of the EU should read it. -- Vernon Bogdanor, Professor of Politics, King's College, London. A must read for everyone interested in Brexit and its consequences - for the UK and for the EU. -- Wolfgang Ischinger, Chair, Munich Security Conference, German Ambassador in London 2006-2008. An excellently sourced book to which future historians will turn to as a trustworthy guide to this most complex crisis in Anglo-Continental relations. Simply a masterpiece. -- Thomas Kielinger, since 1998 correspondent in London Preface 5 Summary in Seven Theses 7 Contents 10 About the Author 13 1: With Europe, But Not of Europe 14 1.1 Churchill’s 1946 Speech in Zurich and the ECSC (1950) 14 1.2 Messina and Rome (1955/1957) 22 1.3 Paris (1961–1969) 23 1.4 Brussels (1973) 32 1.5 The First Referendum (1975) 33 1.6 Bruges (1988) 40 1.7 Black Wednesday and EU Romance Under Major and Blair (1992–2005) 43 1.8 Shifting Public Opinion in the United Kingdom from 2010 50 References 57 Further Reading 59 2: Cameron Fighting the EU and His Own Party: Preparing for Brexit 60 2.1 David Cameron Before 2010 60 2.2 Prime Minister Cameron (2010) 62 2.3 The Bloomberg Speech (2013) 66 2.4 Referendum in Scotland, War in Ukraine, Cameron Juggles (2014) 69 2.5 Triumph in Elections: Defeat in Referendum (2015) 79 2.6 Charting the Course Ahead (2015) 83 2.7 Renegotiations (2016) 89 2.8 Remain: Britain Stronger in Europe (2016) 99 2.9 Leave: Vote Leave, Leave.EU and Grassroots Out (2016) 106 2.10 The European Union 113 2.11 External Events (2016) 116 2.12 Demons Unleashed (2016) 119 References 132 Further Reading 135 3: Brexit Means Brexit: Squaring the Circle 137 3.1 Finding the Entrance to Exit (2016) 137 3.2 Looking for the Bespoke Agreement 142 3.2.1 The Norway Model 142 3.2.2 The Switzerland Model 143 3.2.3 The Turkey Model 143 3.2.4 The Canada Model 144 3.2.5 The WTO Model 144 3.3 Lancaster House: May Declares Her Position (2017) 146 3.4 Departure Without Return? (2017) 153 3.5 Early Elections 8 June 2017: May Loses Time and Power 156 3.6 May Speaks in Florence, Johnson Fires Across Her Bows (2017) 159 3.7 Separation Treaty and European Union Withdrawal Bill (2017) 162 3.8 Brexit Takes Shape (2018) 167 3.8.1 In Quest of a New Course 167 3.8.2 The Chequers White Paper of July 2018 170 3.8.3 Two Men Overboard: But No Mutiny 173 3.8.4 Salzburg and Birmingham: Land in sight or Fata Morgana? 176 3.8.5 Will the Pilot Be Dropped or Pushed Overboard? 181 3.9 A Never-Ending Story 188 3.9.1 May’s Spectacular Defeat 188 3.9.2 Parliament’s No, No, No Is Not an Answer 191 3.9.3 A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand 199 References 201 Further Reading 206 4: Brexit and No End 207 4.1 A Preliminary Assessment 207 4.1.1 A Lack of Understanding 207 4.1.2 The Historical Background 211 4.1.3 Some Sociology of Brexit 213 4.1.4 The Loss of Englishness 216 4.1.5 Changes in Political Life 216 4.1.6 The Psychological Factor 218 4.2 The United Kingdom 220 4.2.1 Domestic Consequences 221 4.2.1.1 Scotland 222 4.2.1.2 Northern Ireland 223 4.2.1.3 Secessionist Tendencies and Division of Competences 226 4.2.1.4 Dilemmas of the Political Parties 228 4.2.2 The Issues 233 4.2.3 Sovereignty 233 4.2.3.1 Referenda and the Sovereignty of Parliament 235 4.2.3.2 The House of Lords 237 4.2.4 Economy: Industry, Agriculture, and Foreign Trade 238 4.2.4.1 Industry 241 4.2.4.2 Trade 243 4.2.4.3 Agriculture 244 4.2.4.4 Fisheries 245 4.2.4.5 Services 247 4.2.5 Migration 250 4.2.6 Budgets 256 4.2.7 Global Alternatives to the Single Market? 259 4.3 Republic of Ireland 264 4.4 Germany 269 4.5 The EU: Loss of a Family Member 273 4.5.1 Ever Closer Union of People? 276 4.5.2 The European Court of Justice 279 4.5.3 Majority Voting 282 4.5.4 Complacency? 283 4.5.5 EU Member States Will Be Affected Differently 284 4.5.6 Security 287 4.5.7 Treaties 288 4.5.8 The EU Has to Redefine Itself 289 References 291 Further Reading 294 5: A Crystal Ball? 295 5.1 Beyond the Constitutional Crisis and the Brexit Conundrum 301 5.2 A Historical Perspective 304 References 312 "This book offers a comprehensive political assessment of Brexit. Based on a historical review of the role of the United Kingdom in the European Union, the author, a former diplomat at the German embassy in London, presents well-founded insights into arguments in favor and against the Brexit deal and the status quo of the Brexit negotiations. Furthermore, the book discusses the consequences of Brexit - for the UK and the rest of the EU, for security in Europe, and for the transatlantic relationship, as well as for global trade relations and the competitiveness of Europe and the UK."-- Provided by publisher Rudolf G. Adam ; English Text Revised By Gill Mertens. This Book Is Based On ... Brexit: Eine Bilanz, Which Was Published In German By Springer Verlag In March 2019. This Version Has Been Extensively Revised With An English-speaking Readership In Mind. Several Passages Have Been Rewritten, And The Text Has Been Updated To Take Account Of Recent Developments Up To 15 April 2019. Some Last Touches Were Added To The Proofs To Take Into Account Theresa May's Resignation And The Appointment Of Boris Johnson As Prime Minister--preface. Includes Bibliographical References. Front Matter ....Pages i-xv With Europe, But Not of Europe (Rudolf G. Adam)....Pages 1-46 Cameron Fighting the EU and His Own Party: Preparing for Brexit (Rudolf G. Adam)....Pages 47-123 Brexit Means Brexit: Squaring the Circle (Rudolf G. Adam)....Pages 125-194 Brexit and No End (Rudolf G. Adam)....Pages 195-282 A Crystal Ball? (Rudolf G. Adam)....Pages 283-300