Complex Decision Making: Theory and Practice (Understanding Complex Systems)

The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV: Methodological Issues V: Future Directions Pt. I. Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories, And Empirical Evidence -- 1. How To Improve Dynamic Decision Making? Practice And Promise / Mustafa Krakul And Hassan Qudrat-ullah -- 2. Expertise And Dynamic Tasks / J. Michael Spector -- Pt. Ii. Tools And Techniques For Decision Making In Complex Systems -- 3. Dynamic Handling Of Uncertainty For Decision Making / S. C. Lenny Koh -- 4. Using System Dynamics And Multiple Objective Optimization To Support Policy Analysis For Complex Systems / Jim Duggan -- 5. Creation Of Hydroelectric System Scheduling By Simulation / Jesus M. Latorre, Santiago Cerisola, Andres Ramos, Rafael Bellido And Alejandro Perea -- 6. Complex Decision Making Using Non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis / Michael Alexander -- 7. Using Group Model Building To Inform Public Policy Making And Implementation / Aldo A. Zagonel And John Rohrbaugh -- 8. Agents First! Using Agent-based Simulation To Identify And Quantify Macro Structures / Nadine Schieritz And Peter M. Milling -- Pt. Iii. System Dynamics And Agent-based Modeling In Action -- 9. Influencing And Interpreting Health And Social Care Policy In The Uk / Eric Wolstenholme, David Monk, Douglas Mckelvie And Gill Smith -- 10. System Dynamics Advances Strategic Economic Transition Planning In A Developing Nation / Brian Dangerfield -- 11. Saving A Valley: Systemic Decision-making Based On Qualitative And Quantitative System Dynamics / Markus Schwaninger -- 12. Building Long-term Manufacturer-retailer Relationships Through Strategic Human Resource Management Policies: A System Dynamics Approach / Enzo Bivona And Francesco Ceresia -- 13. Diffusion And Social Networks: Revisiting Medical Innovation With Agents / Nazmun N. Ratna, Anne Dray, Pascal Perez, R. Quentin Grafton, David Newth And Tom Kompas -- Pt. Iv. Methodological Issues In Research On Complex Decision Making -- 14. Measuring Change In Mental Models Of Complex Dynamic Systems / James K. Doyle, Michael J. Radzicki And W. Scott Trees -- 15. Comprehensive Model Of Goal Dynamics In Organizations: Setting, Evaluation And Revision / Yaman Barlas And Hakan Yasarcan -- Pt. V. Future Directions On Complex Decision Making -- 16. Future Directions On Complex Decision Making Using Modeling And Simulation Decision Support / Hassan Qudrat-ullah. H. Qudrat-ullah, J.m. Spector, P.i. Davidsen (eds). Includes Bibliographical References. Front Matter....Pages I-X Front Matter....Pages 1-1 How to Improve Dynamic Decision Making? Practice and Promise....Pages 3-24 Expertise and Dynamic Tasks....Pages 25-37 Front Matter....Pages 39-39 Dynamic Handling of Uncertainty for Decision Making....Pages 41-58 Using System Dynamics and Multiple Objective Optimization to Support Policy Analysis for Complex Systems....Pages 59-81 Creation of Hydroelectric System Scheduling by Simulation....Pages 83-96 Complex Decision Making using Non-Parametric Data Envelopment Analysis....Pages 97-111 Using Group Model Building to Inform Public Policy Making and Implementation....Pages 113-138 Agents First! Using Agent-based Simulation to Identify and Quantify Macro Structures....Pages 139-152 Front Matter....Pages 153-153 Influencing and Interpreting Health and Social Care Policy in the UK....Pages 155-183 System Dynamics Advances Strategic Economic Transition Planning in a Developing Nation....Pages 185-209 Saving a Valley: Systemic Decision-making Based onQualitative and Quantitative System Dynamics....Pages 211-226 Building Long-Term Manufacturer-Retailer Relationships through Strategic Human Resource Management Policies: A System Dynamics Approach....Pages 227-246 Diffusion and Social Networks: Revisiting Medical Innovation with Agents....Pages 247-265 Front Matter....Pages 267-267 Measuring Change in Mental Models of Complex Dynamic Systems....Pages 269-294 A Comprehensive Model of Goal Dynamics in Organizations: Setting, Evaluation and Revision....Pages 295-320 Front Matter....Pages 321-321 Future Directions on Complex Decision Making Using Modeling and Simulation Decision Support....Pages 323-337 Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.