Coolhunting : Chasing Down the Next Big Thing

'Coolhunting' and 'swarm creativity' are powerful concepts about identifying emerging trends and discovering the key trendsetters. They are about uncovering hidden innovation and innovators and they include the how and why new ideas and new knowledge are converted into products and services that correspond to the collective human mindset. Coolhunting involves making observations and predictions as part of the search for cutting-edge trends. It is a way of capturing what the 'collective mind' is thinking, and using what is captured to one's advantage. For an example of this 'collective mind' concept, on the television show "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?", contestants unsure of the answer to a question had the option of asking the audience or phoning a so-called 'expert'. Far more often than did the experts, the collective intelligence of the audience produced the correct answer.This is a simple example of swarm creativity. Humans swarm around like-minded people, with whom they not only feel comfortable but also can collaborate to produce winning ideas. The volume includes sidebars that expand concepts and present engaging anecdotes, as well as illustrations (charts, graphs, tables, and pictures) to help guide the reader through the explanations of concepts or simply to make for a more enjoyable read. The book includes many examples from history and from more recent business cases.Some of the examples are: how the CEO of Continental Airlines, participating in an online forum of frequent flyers, brought 200 of these people together in Houston at a dinner to discuss how the company could improve its services; how 10 research labs, collaborating globally to discover the causes of the SARS disease, were able to share newly acquired knowledge and achieve tremendous results very quickly; and, how Linux, an organization with no one officially in charge, became the only serious contender to the strictly hierarchical organization that developed Microsoft Windows. CONTENTS......Page 6 FORWARD......Page 10 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS......Page 16 INTRODUCTION......Page 22 1 WHY "COOL" MATTERS......Page 26 What Is "Cool"?......Page 28 Coolhunting Offers Tremendous Benefits in Business......Page 30 The Diffusion of Innovation......Page 33 Predicting How Coolhunting Might Be Applied......Page 38 2 SWARM CREATIVITY CREATES COOL TRENDS......Page 44 Self-Organization in the Beehive......Page 45 It's Cool to Give Power Away......Page 48 It's Cool to Share Knowledge......Page 54 It's Cool to Self-Organize......Page 56 Applying Swarm Creativity to Coolhunting......Page 59 3 SWARMS CAN BETTER PREDICT THE FUTURE......Page 66 Prediction Markets......Page 67 Birds of a Feather Flock Together: Predicting Success Based on Peer Networks......Page 75 You Can Predict Your Future Network......Page 80 4 ABOUT TRENDSETTERS......Page 84 Benjamin Franklin as Role Model......Page 87 The Anti-Ben?......Page 90 Don't Be a Star, Be a Galaxy......Page 92 Galaxies Are High Performers......Page 100 5 COOLHUNTERS LOOK FOR COOLFARMERS......Page 104 Coolhunting for Trendsetters......Page 105 From Idea to Trend......Page 108 Coolfarming "Enhanced Gravity"......Page 110 The Four Principles of Coolfarming......Page 113 A Coolfarming Example from Beyond the Business World......Page 121 Coolfarming That Truly Changed the World: Netscape......Page 125 Coolfarming Gone Wrong: Boo.com......Page 131 6 WHEN SWARMS GO MAD......Page 134 Collective Madness......Page 135 Lack of Open Communication Can Be Fatal: NASA......Page 142 Egomania at Enron......Page 145 What a COIN and a Religious Cult Have in Common: "The Family"......Page 147 7 DO-IT-YOURSELF COOLHUNTING WITH TECHNOLOGY......Page 154 Do-It-Yourself Coolhunting in the Blogosphere......Page 155 Tracking Physical Interactions in Social Networks......Page 160 Finding Learning Trends and Making Education Cooler......Page 165 Some Lessons for Virtual Collaboration......Page 167 Discovering Trends by Mining Communication Archives......Page 172 1. Identifying Trendsetters in a Social Network: Wikinews......Page 177 2. Coolhunting New Product Trends in an Online Forum: eCoustics......Page 184 3. Coolhunting Trendsetters Among Product Users: Mobile Phones in a High School Class......Page 188 4. Discovering Suspicious Patterns of Innovation: Enron......Page 198 5. Coolfarming a Computer Gaming Community......Page 207 9 FIVE STEPS TO BECOMING A COOLFARMER......Page 212 Step 2: Form a COIN......Page 215 Step 3: Coolhunt in an Online Community......Page 218 Step 4: Measure Communication in Your Own COIN......Page 220 Step 5: Become a Coolfarmer......Page 223 10 THE COMING WORLD OF SWARM CREATIVITY......Page 226 Morphing into Swarm Creativity......Page 227 Stakeholders or Shareholders?......Page 233 Immerse Yourself in the Swarm......Page 236 Listen to the Swarm......Page 237 Trust the Swarm......Page 239 Share with the Swarm......Page 241 NOTES......Page 244 C......Page 252 I......Page 254 P......Page 255 S......Page 256 Z......Page 257 CONTENTS 6 FORWARD 10 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 16 INTRODUCTION 22 1 WHY "COOL" MATTERS 26 What Is "Cool"? 28 Coolhunting Offers Tremendous Benefits in Business 30 The Diffusion of Innovation 33 Predicting How Coolhunting Might Be Applied 38 2 SWARM CREATIVITY CREATES COOL TRENDS 44 Self-Organization in the Beehive 45 It's Cool to Give Power Away 48 It's Cool to Share Knowledge 54 It's Cool to Self-Organize 56 Applying Swarm Creativity to Coolhunting 59 3 SWARMS CAN BETTER PREDICT THE FUTURE 66 Prediction Markets 67 Birds of a Feather Flock Together: Predicting Success Based on Peer Networks 75 You Can Predict Your Future Network 80 4 ABOUT TRENDSETTERS 84 Benjamin Franklin as Role Model 87 The Anti-Ben? 90 Don't Be a Star, Be a Galaxy 92 Galaxies Are High Performers 100 5 COOLHUNTERS LOOK FOR COOLFARMERS 104 Coolhunting for Trendsetters 105 From Idea to Trend 108 Coolfarming "Enhanced Gravity" 110 The Four Principles of Coolfarming 113 A Coolfarming Example from Beyond the Business World 121 Coolfarming That Truly Changed the World: Netscape 125 Coolfarming Gone Wrong: Boo.com 131 6 WHEN SWARMS GO MAD 134 Collective Madness 135 Lack of Open Communication Can Be Fatal: NASA 142 Egomania at Enron 145 What a COIN and a Religious Cult Have in Common: "The Family" 147 7 DO-IT-YOURSELF COOLHUNTING WITH TECHNOLOGY 154 Do-It-Yourself Coolhunting in the Blogosphere 155 Tracking Physical Interactions in Social Networks 160 Finding Learning Trends and Making Education Cooler 165 Some Lessons for Virtual Collaboration 167 8 COOLHUNTING BY AUTOMATED SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS 172 Discovering Trends by Mining Communication Archives 172 1. Identifying Trendsetters in a Social Network: Wikinews 177 2. Coolhunting New Product Trends in an Online Forum: eCoustics 184 3. Coolhunting Trendsetters Among Product Users: Mobile Phones in a High School Class 188 4. Discovering Suspicious Patterns of Innovation: Enron 198 5. Coolfarming a Computer Gaming Community 207 9 FIVE STEPS TO BECOMING A COOLFARMER 212 Step 1: Learn About Swarm Creativity, COINS, and Social Networks 215 Step 2: Form a COIN 215 Step 3: Coolhunt in an Online Community 218 Step 4: Measure Communication in Your Own COIN 220 Step 5: Become a Coolfarmer 223 10 THE COMING WORLD OF SWARM CREATIVITY 226 Morphing into Swarm Creativity 227 Stakeholders or Shareholders? 233 Immerse Yourself in the Swarm 236 Listen to the Swarm 237 Trust the Swarm 239 Share with the Swarm 241 NOTES 244 INDEX 252 A 252 B 252 C 252 D 254 E 254 F 254 G 254 H 254 I 254 J 255 K 255 L 255 M 255 N 255 O 255 P 255 R 256 S 256 T 257 U 257 V 257 W 257 Y 257 Z 257 'Coolhunting' and 'swarm creativity' are powerful concepts about identifying emerging trends and discovering the key trendsetters. They are about uncovering hidden innovation and innovators and they include the how and why new ideas and new knowledge are converted into products and services that correspond to the collective human mindset. Coolhunting involves making observations and predictions as part of the search for cutting-edge trends. It is a way of capturing what the 'collective mind' is thinking, and using what is captured to one's advantage. For an example of this 'collective mind' concept, on the television show Who Wants to be a Millionaire?, contestants unsure of the answer to a question had the option of asking the audience or phoning a so-called 'expert'. Far more often than did the experts, the collective intelligence of the audience produced the correct answer. This is a simple example of swarm creativity. Humans swarm around like-minded people, with whom they not only feel comfortable but also can collaborate to produce winning ideas. The volume includes sidebars that expand concepts and present engaging anecdotes, as well as illustrations (charts, graphs, tables, and pictures) to help guide the reader through the explanations of concepts or simply to make for a more enjoyable read. The book includes many examples from history and from more recent business cases. Some of the examples are: how the CEO of Continental Airlines, participating in an online forum of frequent flyers, brought 200 of these people together in Houston at a dinner to discuss how the company could improve its services; how 10 research labs, collaborating globally to discover the causes of the SARS disease, were able to share newly acquired knowledge and achieve tremendous results very quickly; and, how Linux, an organization with no one officially in charge, became the only serious contender to the strictly hierarchical organizat

What do the iPod, MySpace, and YouTube all have in common? They’re fresh, they’re sexy, and most importantly -- they’re cool. But while many companies embark on the eternal quest for the next big thing, very few know how to actually find it. Coolhunting will take readers into the very heart of the search and show them how to find trendsetters, spot innovations, and turn brilliant ideas into hot new trends. Major companies like Starbucks and Proctor & Gamble have already discovered the power of coolhunting. Now, anyone can learn how to:

• tap into the "Tao of Cool" and identify the trends that are truly cutting-edge

• cultivate the skills and techniques of highly effective coolhunters

• pinpoint developing trends on the Internet by using "smartbadges

An invaluable tool for businesses of all sizes, Coolhunting will show leaders how to stay ahead of the curve and on the cutting edge of where their customers want to be taken.

What do the iPod, MySpace, Facebook, and YouTube all have in common? They're fresh, they're hot, and most importantly--they're cool. But while many companies embark on the eternal quest for the next big thing, very few know how to actually find it. Coolhunting will take you into the very heart of the search and show you how to find trendsetters, spot innovations, and turn brilliant ideas into hot new trends. Major companies like Starbucks and Procter & Gamble have already discovered the power of coolhunting. Now, you can learn how * Tap into the principles of cool and identify the trends that are truly cutting-edge * cultivate the skills and techniques of highly effective coolhunters * pinpoint developing trends using smartbadges An invaluable tool for businesses of all sizes, Coolhunting will show you how to stay ahead of the curve and on the cutting edge of where your customers want to be taken. "In Coolhunting you will discover the practical tools you need to find the hottest trends - and the people who set them. The art of coolhunting involves zeroing in on the fresh idea that will be the genesis of a hot new trend. It also involves finding the people responsible for the idea - the trendsetters who will cause others to jump on board. By recognizing who the trendsetters are, you can actually anticipate the next big trend before it takes off - because cool ideas will grow and expand around these people."--Jacket