Map and territory

Preface Introduction Predictably Wrong Scope Insensitivity The Martial Art of Rationality Availability What's a Bias? Burdensome Details What Do I Mean By ``Rationality"? Planning Fallacy Why Truth? Feeling Rational The Lens That Sees Its Own Flaws Fake Beliefs Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences) A Fable of Science and Politics Belief in Belief Religion's Claim to be Non-Disprovable Professing and Cheering Belief as Attire Pretending to be Wise Applause Lights Noticing Confusion Focus Your Uncertainty What Is Evidence? Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence How Much Evidence Does It Take? Einstein's Arrogance Occam's Razor Your Strength as a Rationalist Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence Conservation of Expected Evidence Hindsight Devalues Science Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You Expecting Short Inferential Distances Mysterious Answers Fake Explanations Guessing the Teacher's Password Science as Attire Fake Causality Semantic Stopsigns Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions The Futility of Emergence Say Not ``Complexity" Positive Bias: Look into the Dark Lawful Uncertainty My Wild and Reckless Youth Failing to Learn from History Making History Available Explain/Worship/Ignore? ``Science" as Curiosity-Stopper Truly Part of You Postlude: The Simple Truth Glossary Bibliography