New risks : issues and management

This volume contains the proceedings of the 1986 annual meeting and conference of the Society for Risk Analysis. It provides a detailed view of both mature disciplines and emerging areas within the fields of health, safety, and environmental risk analysis as they existed in 1986. In selecting and organizing topics for this conference, we sought both (i) to identify and include new ideas and application areas that would be of lasting interest to risk analysts and to users of risk analysis results, and (ii) to include innovative methods and applications in established areas of risk analysis. In the three years since the conference, many of the topics presented there for the first time to a broad risk analysis audience have become well developed-and sometimes hotly debated-areas of applied risk research. Several, such as the public health hazards from indoor air pollutants, radon in the home, high-voltage electric fields, and the AIDS epidemic, have been the subjects of headlines since 1986. Older areas, such as hazardous waste site ranking and remediation, air emissions dispersion modeling and exposure assessment, transportation safety, seismic and nuclear risk assessment, and occupational safety in the chemical industry, have continued to receive new treatments and to benefit from advances in quantitative risk assessment methods, as documented in the theoretical and methodological papers in this volume. A theme of the meeting was the importance of new technologies and the new and uncertain risks that they create. Front Matter....Pages i-xii Risk Management for Controlling Pollution Liability in a Corporate Environment....Pages 1-9 Corporate Management of Liability Risk....Pages 11-13 The Independent Auditors’ Assessment and Conveyance of Risk (Preliminary Results)....Pages 15-20 Strict Liability and Insurance Under Loss Misestimation....Pages 21-21 Comparison of EPA, ILO, and World Bank Guidelines for Risk Identification Assessment, and Management of Chemical Emergencies....Pages 23-31 Decision Analysis in Environmental Risk Management: Applications to Acid Deposition and Air Toxics....Pages 33-43 Causality in Toxicologic Risk Assessment and Risk Management....Pages 45-53 Environmentally Induced Cancer: A Model for Estimating Excess Cancer Risks Based on a Two-Stage Model of Carcinogenesis....Pages 55-63 Is the One-Hit Model of Carcinogenesis Conservative? Evidence from the National Toxicology Program’s Bioassay Databasea....Pages 65-76 Carcinogenicity Versus Acute Toxicity: Is There a Relationship?....Pages 77-85 Incorporating More Science Into Cancer Dose-Response Extrapolations....Pages 87-94 Parameters Involved in Risk Assessment for Environmental Release of Biotechnology Products....Pages 95-101 Do Genetically Engineered Microorganisms Pose Risks to Ecosystems?....Pages 103-110 Control of Microbial Pathogens in Poultry by Irradiation: Issues Related to Risks and Benefits....Pages 111-118 Exposure Assessment for Sterilized Medical Devices: Implications for Microbiological Risk Analysis....Pages 119-128 Risks in New Technologies — Controlling Toxic and Hazardous Gas Releases During Photovoltaic Cell Manufacture....Pages 129-134 Application of Systems Analysis Techniques to Vulnerability Studies of Complex Installations....Pages 135-142 Seismic Hazard in the Eastern United States: Bounding the Uncertainty....Pages 143-151 Thinking the Unthinkable: Preparing for Global Disaster....Pages 153-158 Risk Aversion in Agricultural Policy Analysis: A Closer Look at Meaning, Modeling, and Measurement....Pages 159-166 Evaluating Risks to Agricultural Production from Acid Deposition....Pages 167-172 Economic Principles of Risk Management in Production....Pages 173-184 Assessing Risk from Dermal Exposure at Hazardous Waste Sites....Pages 185-190 Bioaccumulation of TCDD in Lake Ontario Fish: Laboratory and Field Studies in Support of Hazardous Waste Landfill Risk Assessments....Pages 191-201 Risk Assessment of Indoor Air Pollution by Termiticides....Pages 203-208 Fuzzy Risk Analysis: Theory and Application....Pages 209-219 Assessment of the Acceptability of the Proposals for a Fixed Link Across the English Channel....Pages 221-228 Risk Assessment and Management: A Regional Approach....Pages 229-240 Scientific and Technological Inputs to Nonroutine Decision Making by Three Groups: Scientists Government Officials, Corporate Managers....Pages 241-250 Confidence in Technologies: Interaction Between Publics and Industries....Pages 251-257 Ritualism in Communicating Risk Information....Pages 259-267 Summary of Panel Discussion on “The Role of Private and Public Sector Insurance and Compensation for Environmental Pollution”....Pages 269-275 Risk Management Through Market Incentives: Liability and Insurance....Pages 277-282 A Comparison of the Human Exposure Model and the Air Emissions Risk Assessment Model....Pages 283-290 Comparisons Between Desktop Dispersion Calculations and Computerized Air Dispersion Model Results When Results Are To Be Used in a Risk Assessment....Pages 291-299 Livermore Risk Analysis Methodology: A Structured Decision Analytic Tool for Information Systems Risk Management....Pages 301-314 LAVA: A Conceptual Framework for Automated Risk Analysis....Pages 315-330 A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Program for Analyzing Security Risks....Pages 331-340 A General Purpose Computer Shell for Risk Analysis....Pages 341-347 A Preliminary Model of Radon Exposure....Pages 349-358 Power-Frequency Fields: Risk Without Measure....Pages 359-370 Computer Security Risk Analysis....Pages 371-377 Diffuse Risks from Adversarial Sources: An Emerging Field of Risk Analysis....Pages 379-388 Uncertainty and Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment: A Framework for Analysis....Pages 389-401 An Experiment in Combining Estimates of Uncertainty....Pages 403-412 Linear-Nonparametric Low-Dose Disease Risk Estimation....Pages 413-421 Methods Used in Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis....Pages 423-430 Can We Bring Quality of Management into PRAs?....Pages 431-440 Studies with a New Risk Reduction Model....Pages 441-450 Hits on MRS....Pages 451-458 A Psychological Perspective on Accident Evolutions and How to Arrest Them in Nuclear Power Plants....Pages 459-468 Chernobyl Accident — Emergency Monitoring and Protection Measures in Poland....Pages 469-476 The Accident at Chernobyl: A Report on Risk Management at a Local Hot Spot in West Germany....Pages 477-496 The Comparative Ranking of Risks....Pages 497-508 Getting to Maybe: Implied Principles of Trust and Consent in Two Massachusetts Acts....Pages 509-514 Coping with Scientific and Technological Uncertainty: Federal Policy Analysis for Nonroutine Decisions....Pages 515-528 Signal Detection and Perceived Risks: Homeowner Responses to Radon Risk Information....Pages 529-540 Role of Publicity in Three Risk Management Decisions: Ethylene Dibromide as a Pesticide, Dioxin in Times Beach, and Screening Mammography....Pages 541-552 An Extension of the Coverage-Attitude Hypothesis: Coverage of Technological and Environmental Hazards in Dutch Newspapers and Readers’ Reactions....Pages 553-561 Contrasting Risk Communication Tasks and Objectives for Superfund Sites, Underground Storage Tanks, and Biotechnology Field Tests....Pages 563-571 Communicating Risk: Factors Affecting Community Acceptance of Information....Pages 573-578 AIDS: Risks and Public Policies....Pages 579-583 The Healthy Worker Effect: The Need to Reevaluate a Broad Spectrum of Occupational Risks....Pages 585-597 Cultural Values Affecting Risk Perception: Individualism and the Perception of Toxicological Risks....Pages 599-607 Are Twenty-Fold Differences in “Lifesaving” Costs Justified?: A Psychometric Study of the Relative Value Placed on Preventing Deaths from Programs Addressing Different Hazards....Pages 609-619 The Nature of PRA for the Chemical Industry....Pages 621-632 Risk Uncertainties in Public Sector Safety Decisions: Assessment Methods and Management Implications....Pages 633-642 Assessment of Risks from Acute Hazards at Monsanto....Pages 643-650 Differences Between Industries in the Definition of Acceptable Risk....Pages 651-658 Risk Education and Hazard Management in the Workplace: The Role of Workers’ and Executives’ Social Relations....Pages 659-665 Consumer Response to Food Risk Information: Demographic Differences....Pages 667-678 Estimating Fatality Reductions from Increased Safety Belt Use....Pages 679-680 Are Special Trains Really Safer?....Pages 681-692 Comparison of Risks from Ocean-Based and Land-Based Incineration of Hazardous Wastes....Pages 693-700 Carcinogenesis Risk Assessment of Two-Carbon Alkylating Agents Using Dynamic Simulation of Absorption and Metabolism....Pages 701-709 Back Matter....Pages 711-716