Poverty, Progress, and Population

By the early nineteenth century England was very different economically from its continental neighbours. It was wealthier, growing more rapidly, more heavily urbanised, and far less dependent upon agriculture. A generation ago it was normal to attribute these differences to the 'industrial revolution' and to suppose that this was mainly the product of recent change, but no longer. Current estimates suggest only slow growth during the period from 1760–1840. This implies that the economy was much larger and more advanced by 1760 than had previously been supposed and suggests that growth in the preceding century or two must have been decisive in bringing about the 'divergence' of England. Sir E. A. Wrigley, the leading historian of industrial Britain, here examines the issues which arise in this connection from three viewpoints: economic growth; the transformation of the urban-rural balance; and demographic change in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Cover......Page 1 Half-title......Page 3 Title......Page 5 Copyright......Page 6 Dedication......Page 7 Contents......Page 9 Figures......Page 11 Tables......Page 12 Acknowledgements......Page 15 Introduction......Page 17 Part I The wellsprings of growth......Page 31 The paradox......Page 33 England and the Netherlands: urbanisation, occupational structure, and real income......Page 36 Capitalism......Page 42 The limits to growth in organic economies......Page 45 The escape from the constraints of an organic economy......Page 48 The centrality of agriculture......Page 51 The industrial revolution: a revised perspective......Page 54 Conclusion......Page 56 2 The divergence of England: the growth of the English economy in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries......Page 60 An advanced organic economy......Page 62 England and the Netherlands......Page 68 Capitalist growth: Marx and others......Page 71 Why England diverged and what brought her relative success to an end......Page 79 The increase in capital and the division of labour......Page 84 The constraints on growth in an organically based economy......Page 89 The mineral-based energy economy: resource capitalism......Page 93 From negative to positive feedback......Page 98 A revised view of proto-industrialisation......Page 100 Conclusion......Page 101 4 Men on the land and men in the countryside: employment in agriculture in early nineteenth-century England......Page 103 The English male labour force 1811–1851......Page 104 Agricultural employment 1831–1851......Page 112 Agricultural employment 1811–1831......Page 126 Reflections......Page 141 Conclusion......Page 144 5 The occupational structure of England in the mid-nineteenth century......Page 145 Preliminary issues......Page 148 The alternative schemes of classification......Page 149 Census taking......Page 153 The 1851 census......Page 154 The 1841 census......Page 160 Comparing the 1841 and 1851 censuses......Page 163 Adjustments to the published totals......Page 166 The occupational structure in the mid-century revealed by the PST classification system......Page 179 The retail and wholesale trades......Page 188 General reflections......Page 192 Appendix 1......Page 194 The Registrar General’s 1851 classification system......Page 203 Booth’s classification system......Page 209 Comparing the three systems......Page 213 6 Corn and crisis: Malthus on the high price of provisions......Page 220 7 Why poverty was inevitable in traditional societies......Page 228 The hierarchy of human wants and individual productivity......Page 229 Further constraints on the growth of individual productivity......Page 232 Why growth might aggravate rather than alleviate difficulties......Page 241 Conclusion......Page 242 8 Malthus on the prospects for the labouring poor......Page 245 The view of the classical economists......Page 246 Malthus refines his initial stance......Page 249 Malthus and the poor law......Page 254 The grounds for a limited optimism......Page 257 A future radically different from the past......Page 259 Conclusion......Page 262 Part II Town and country......Page 265 9 City and country in the past: a sharp divide or a continuum?......Page 267 The urban hierarchy......Page 269 Urban growth and stagnation......Page 273 The interface between city and country: synergy or rural self-sufficiency......Page 278 Conclusion......Page 282 10 ‘The great commerce of every civilized society’: urban growth in early modern Europe......Page 284 Smith’s model of urban development......Page 285 Smith’s description of urban growth in Europe......Page 287 The limited nature of urban growth in early modern Europe......Page 290 The constraints on urban growth......Page 293 The rural demand for urban products......Page 297 The contrast between England and the continent......Page 300 Conclusion......Page 302 11 Country and town: the primary, secondary, and tertiary peopling of England in the early modern period......Page 306 Types of employment......Page 307 Types of peopling......Page 308 England and the continent......Page 311 The course of change in England......Page 314 Measurement issues......Page 318 The expansion of secondary and tertiary peopling......Page 322 Explaining the changes which occurred......Page 324 Part III The numbers game......Page 331 12 Explaining the rise in marital fertility in England in the ‘long’ eighteenth century......Page 333 The rise in marital fertility......Page 334 Endogenous and exogenous infant mortality in England in the early modern period......Page 337 Stillbirths and early infant deaths......Page 340 Trends in the stillbirth rate over time......Page 347 Stillbirth trends and changes in fertility......Page 355 Stillbirths and fecund marital fertility......Page 361 Conclusion......Page 364 13 No death without birth: the implications of English mortality in the early modern period......Page 367 The ‘European’ demographic pattern......Page 369 Why high fertility may result in high mortality......Page 375 Why low fertility may promote rapid population growth......Page 378 Mortality decline in Victorian and Edwardian England......Page 380 Conclusion......Page 381 14 The effect of migration on the estimation of marriage age in family reconstitution studies......Page 383 Ruggles’s critique of estimates of marriage age from family reconstitution material......Page 384 Retracing and extending Ruggles’s analysis......Page 386 The timing and type of migration......Page 396 Census data and the singulate mean age at marriage......Page 399 Further evidence about marriage age and migration......Page 404 Conclusion......Page 408 15 Demographic retrospective......Page 410 The demographic findings......Page 411 England and Scandinavia......Page 413 Gross reproduction rates and age-specific marital fertility rates......Page 414 Mortality......Page 420 Birth interval data......Page 422 Sterility......Page 426 Infant and child mortality......Page 427 Generalised inverse projection and family reconstitution......Page 431 Mortality: expectation of life at birth and partial life expectancies......Page 432 Reconstitution and early civil registration......Page 435 Fertility estimates......Page 436 Mortality......Page 438 Adult mortality......Page 443 Razzell’s alternative scenario......Page 447 Conclusion......Page 454 SECONDARY SOURCES......Page 457 OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS......Page 469 Index......Page 471 When Deane and Cole published their pathbreaking study of the growth of the British economy between the late seventeenth and mid-twentieth centuries, they concluded, in effect, that the term 'industrial revolution' was meaningful and that the conventional chronology was broadly correct - that over a period of half a century or so beginning in the last decades of the eighteenth century there was a marked acceleration in the rate of growth of the national product, an acceleration so marked that, in spite of the fact that population grew faster in this period than at any earlier or subsequent time, output per head also rose more quickly than previously.

E.A. Wrigley, the leading historian of industrial England, exposes the inadequacy of what was once accepted wisdom regarding England's industrial revolution and suggests what he believes should replace it. He examines the issues from three viewpoints: economic growth; the transformation of the urban-rural balance; and demographic change in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. In addition, he shows why England's early modern economy and society grew faster and more dynamically than its continental neighbors.

Our understanding of what constituted the industrial revolution has changed fundamentally in recent decades. Sir E. A. Wrigley, the leading historian of industrial England, here sets out to expose the inadequacy of what was once the received wisdom and to suggest what he believes should stand in its place. E.a. Wrigley. Includes Articles Previously Published Or Soon To Be Published In Scholarly Journals. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 441-454) And Index.