Risk analytics is developing rapidly, and analysts in the field need material that is theoretically sound as well as practical and straightforward. A one-stop resource for quantitative risk analysis, Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management dispenses with the use of complex mathematics, concentrating on how powerful techniques and methods can be used correctly within a spreadsheet-based environment. Highlights Covers important topics for modern risk analysis, such as frequency-severity modeling and modeling of expert opinion Keeps mathematics to a minimum while covering fairly advanced topics through the use of powerful software tools Contains an unusually diverse selection of topics, including explicit treatment of frequency-severity modeling, copulas, parameter and model uncertainty, volatility modeling in time series, Markov chains, Bayesian modeling, stochastic dominance, and extended treatment of modeling expert opinion End-of-chapter exercises span eight application areas illustrating the broad application of risk analysis tools with the use of data from real-world examples and case studies This book is written for anyone interested in conducting applied risk analysis in business, engineering, environmental planning, public policy, medicine, or virtually any field amenable to spreadsheet modeling. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk®, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. If you intend to use spreadsheets for decision-supporting analysis, rather than merely as placeholders for numbers, then this is the resource for you. This book offers a one-stop resource for performing quantitative risk analyses. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. The specific examples in the text demonstrate a number of cutting-edge tools and techniques that are very powerful in risk analysis but that are not available in other spreadsheet simulation programs. The book covers modeling complex correlations, aggregating uncertainty and variability, and estimating parameter and model uncertainty. The included CD-ROM provides a 120-day trial of ModelRisk. Contents 8 Preface 12 Acknowledgments 14 Introduction 16 The Authors 20 Chapter 1: Conceptual Maps and Models 21 Chapter 2: Basic Monte Carlo Simulation in Spreadsheets 43 Chapter 3: Modeling with Objects 71 Chapter 4: Selecting Distributions 111 Chapter 5: Modeling Relationships 149 Chapter 6: Time Series Models 191 Chapter 7: Optimization and Decision Making 231 Appendix A: Monte Carlo Simulation Software 271 9781439855546,(eBook,-,PDF),9781439855522 CRC Press
