This book is designed to support you in making difficult decisions in a more - tional way. Based on an established theoretical foundation, it shows that simple requirements concerning rational behavior lead to a general calculus of determ- ing optimal decision alternatives; the book then goes on to present methods and instruments useful for the practical implementation of these concepts. Psychological research has uncovered a multitude of systematic cognitive - ases associated with the intuitive decision process, especially concerning the f- mation of preferences and subjective probability judgments for uncertain events. These developments have elevated prescriptive decision theory to the status of an important discipline with increasingly strong practical ties – nowadays, even m- agers are concerned with decision trees, probability distributions and risk profiles. There is also a wide range of software available on the market to aid users with the use of the instruments. We would liketo convince you, by help of the many pr- tical questions and case studies included with most chapters, that the material c- ered is not purely an academic diet but also of high practical nutritional value. The mindset suggested by the theory as an approach for decision problems will surely be of much use to you both in your private and professional life, even if you do not apply the presented methods of decision making support in every little - tail. This book is designed to support you in making difficult decisions in a more - tional way. Based on an established theoretical foundation, it shows that simple requirements concerning rational behavior lead to a general calculus of determ- ing optimal decision alternatives; the book then goes on to present methods and instruments useful for the practical implementation of these concepts. Psychological research has uncovered a multitude of systematic cognitive - ases associated with the intuitive decision process, especially concerning the f- mation of preferences and subjective probability judgments for uncertain events. These developments have elevated prescriptive decision theory to the status of an important discipline with increasingly strong practical ties nowadays, even m- agers are concerned with decision trees, probability distributions and risk profiles. There is also a wide range of software available on the market to aid users with the use of the instruments. We would like to convince you, by help of the many pr- tical questions and case studies included with most chapters, that the material c- ered is not purely an academic diet but also of high practical nutritional value. The mindset suggested by the theory as an approach for decision problems will surely be of much use to you both in your private and professional life, even if you do not apply the presented methods of decision making support in every little - tail. Rational Decision Making Preface Table of contents Chapter 1: What decision analysis is about Chapter 2: Structuring the decision problem Chapter 3: Generating objectives and hierarchies Chapter 4: Generating and preselecting alternatives Chapter 5: Decision making under certainty with one objective Chapter 6: Decision making under certainty and with multiple objectives: multiattribute value functions Chapter 7: The generation of probabilities Chapter 8: Simulation of an objective variable’s probability distribution Chapter 9: Decisions under risk and one objective Chapter 10: Decision under risk: incomplete information and multiple objectives Chapter 11: Time preferences under certain expectations Chapter 12: Group decisions Chapter 13: Descriptive aspects of decision making References Index
