"Incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives have presumably increased their vote percentages in recent decades, raising questions about the efficacy of elections in making members responsive. The evidence, however, indicates there has been no improvement in the electoral fortunes of incumbents in the last 50 years. Only Republicans have improved their electoral fortunes, as a result of realignment. This valuable book provides a very different interpretation of how incumbents have fared in recent decades, and the interpretation is supported by nontechnical data analysis and presentation."--BOOK JACKET Cover 1 Half-title 3 Title 5 Copyright 6 Dedication 7 Contents 9 Preface 11 THE PLAN OF THE BOOK 13 Acknowledgments 15 Part I An Increased Incumbency Effect: Reconsidering Evidence 17 Chapter 1 An Increased Incumbency Effect and American Politics 19 DOUBTS ABOUT FINDINGS AND INTERPRETATION 22 Chapter 2 The Consensus about a Greater Incumbency Effect 27 THE POLITICAL CONTEXT 30 RECONSIDERING THE EVIDENCE 33 Chapter 3 The Trend in Incumbent Vote Percentages 34 DECISIONS AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES 37 QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATIONS OF THE INCUMBENCY EFFECT 45 Chapter 4 Cumulative Career Changes 48 THE POPULATION OF INCUMBENTS 48 INITIAL PERCENTAGES 52 INCREASING VOTE PERCENTAGES OVER A CAREER 53 THE POSSIBILITY OF DECLINING PERCENTAGES OVER A CAREER 59 NET CAREER CHANGES IN VOTE PERCENTAGES 63 Chapter 5 The Retirement Slump 69 A SUMMARY OF THE EVIDENCE 80 Part II Realignment and the Fortunes of (Some) Incumbents 81 Chapter 6 An Alternative Framework: The Role of Realignment 83 EXPLAINING POLITICAL CHANGE IN INCUMBENT SITUATIONS 84 UNANSWERED QUESTIONS 86 SHIFTING REPUBLICAN FORTUNES 87 THE REPUBLICAN DILEMMA 92 REALIGNMENT AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR INCUMBENTS 96 THE PATTERN OF CHANGE 98 CONSEQUENCES 102 Chapter 7 A Partisan View of Incumbent Percentages 104 PARTY, AVERAGE VOTE PERCENTAGES, AND SAFE SEATS 104 CHANGES OVER THE CYCLES OF CAREERS 110 INCREASING THEIR VOTE PERCENTAGES WITH YEARS IN OFFICE 112 NET CAREER CHANGES 113 Chapter 8 The Role of Realignment 115 NEW ENGLAND 116 THE SOUTH 118 THE REMAINDER 119 A SUMMARY 121 THE 1964–1966 SHIFT: WHAT HAPPENED? 124 Chapter 9 Conclusions and Implications 128 THE NORMATIVE ISSUE 129 Part III Appendices: More Detailed Analyses of Incumbency Effect Indicators 133 Appendix A Realignment and the Retirement Slump: A Closer Look 135 REALIGNMENT AND PARTISAN SHIFTS 137 CAREER SUCCESS AND DECLINING PARTY FORTUNES 143 Appendix B The Gelman-King Analysis 146 THE DISJUNCTURE BETWEEN THEORY AND APPLICATION 151 REGRESSION AND CONTROLS 153 A SIMULATED EXAMPLE 154 ASSESSING ACTUAL CHANGES: 1964–1966 157 THE OPEN-SEAT ISSUE 163 Appendix C The Data Set 167 HOUSE ELECTION RESULTS 167 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS 170 Bibliography 173 Index 183 An Increased Incumbency Effect And American Politics -- The Consensus About A Greater Incumbency Effect -- The Trend In Incumbent Vote Percentages -- Cumulative Career Changes -- The Retirement Slump -- An Alternative Framework : The Role Of Realignment -- A Partisan View Of Incumbent Percentages -- The Role Of Realignment -- Conclusions And Implications. Jeffrey M. Stonecash. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 157-165) And Index.
This book argues that House incumbents have not improved their electoral fortunes in recent decades.
