Risk Assessment : Theory, Methods, and Applications

Risk Assessment An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. Full description Title Page ......Page 3 Copyright ......Page 4 Dedication ......Page 5 Contents ......Page 6 Preface......Page 12 Acknowledgments......Page 15 PART I: INTRODUCTIONTO RISK ASSESSMENT......Page 17 1.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 18 1.1.1 Three Main Questions......Page 19 1.1.2 A Conceptual Model......Page 20 1.1.4 Focus of the Book......Page 21 1.2.1 Risk Analysis......Page 22 1.2.2 Risk Evaluation......Page 23 1.2.3 Risk Assessment......Page 24 1.2.4 Risk Management......Page 25 1.3.1 The Sociotechnlcal System ......Page 27 1.3.2 The SHEL Model......Page 28 1.3.3 Complexity and Coupling......Page 29 1.4 ACCIDENT CATEGORIES......Page 30 1.4.1 Jens Rasmussen's Categories......Page 31 1.5.1 Increasing Risk......Page 32 1.6.1 Safety Case......Page 34 1.6.2 Risk Assessment In Safety Legislation......Page 35 1.7 RISK AND DECISION-MAKING......Page 36 1.7.1 Model for Decision-Making......Page 38 1.7.4 Risk-Based Decision-making......Page 39 1.7.5 Risk-Informed Decision-making......Page 40 1.7.7 Closure......Page 41 1.8.2 Part II: Risk Assessment Methods and Applications......Page 42 1.9 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 43 2.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 44 2.2.1 Hazardous Event......Page 45 2.2.3 Accident Scenario......Page 46 2.3.1 Probability......Page 48 2.3.2 Controversy......Page 53 2.3.3 Frequency......Page 55 2.4.1 Categories of Human Victims......Page 56 2.4.2 Consequences and Harm......Page 57 2.4.3 Severity......Page 58 2.4.4 Consequence Spectrum......Page 59 2.5 RISK......Page 60 2.5.1 Alternative De nltlons of Risk......Page 62 2.5.3 Rlsk-In- uencing Factors......Page 63 2.5.4 Desired Risk......Page 64 2.5.7 Perceived Risk......Page 65 2.5.8 Controversy......Page 66 2.6.1 Classl cation of Barriers......Page 69 2.6.3 Defense-In-Depth......Page 70 2.7 ACCIDENTS......Page 71 2.7.2 Special Types of Accidents......Page 72 2.8 UNCERTAINTY......Page 73 2.9.1 Vulnerability......Page 74 2.9.2 Resilience......Page 75 2.10.2 Security......Page 76 2.10.4 IT Security......Page 77 2.11 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 78 3.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 79 3.2.1 Generic List of Hazards......Page 80 3.2.2 Triggering Event......Page 82 3.2.4 Active Failures and Latent Conditions......Page 83 3.3 CLASSIFICATION OF HAZARDS......Page 84 3.4 THREATS......Page 85 3.5 ENERGY SOURCES......Page 86 3.6 TECHNICAL FAILURES......Page 88 3.6.1 Failure Classl cation......Page 89 3.8 ADDI110NAL READING......Page 90 4.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 91 4.2 RISK INDICATORS......Page 92 4.3 RISK TO PEOPLE......Page 93 4.3.1 Individual Risk per Annum......Page 94 4.3.2 Potential Equivalent Fatality......Page 95 4.3.3 Localized Individual Risk......Page 96 4.3.4 Risk Contour Plots......Page 97 4.3.5 Reduction In Life Expectancy......Page 99 4.3.6 Lost-Time Injuries......Page 100 4.3. 7 Relation Between the Frequencies of Fatal Hies and Injuries......Page 101 4.3.8 Potential Loss of Life......Page 103 4.3.9 Fatal Accident Rate......Page 104 4.3.1 0 Deaths per Million......Page 107 4.3.11 FN Curves......Page 108 4.4 RISK MATRICES......Page 113 4.4.2 Classi cation of Consequences......Page 114 4.4.3 Risk Index......Page 116 4.4.5 Advantages and Limitations......Page 118 4.5 RISK ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA......Page 120 4.5.1 Acceptable and Tolerable Risk......Page 121 4.5.2 Value of Life......Page 122 4.5.3 Approaches to Risk Acceptance......Page 124 4.7 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 129 5.2 RISK MANAGEMENT......Page 131 5.3 BOW-TIE ANALYSIS......Page 133 5.3.1 Analysis Procedure......Page 134 5.4.1 Types of Risk Analysis......Page 135 5.4.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria......Page 136 5.4.3 The Steps In a Risk Analysis......Page 138 5.5 RISK EVALUATION......Page 146 5.6.1 Control of Human Error......Page 147 5.8.1 Specl c Requirements......Page 148 5.8.2 Outsourcing of Risk Assessment......Page 149 5.9 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 150 6.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 151 6.1.1 Accident Classl cation......Page 152 6.2.1 Acts of God......Page 153 6.2.3 Classl cation of Accident Causes......Page 154 6.3 ACCIDENT MODELS......Page 155 6.3.2 Classl cation of Accident Models......Page 156 6.4.2 Haddon's Models......Page 158 Pre-injury phase......Page 159 Post-injury phase......Page 160 6.5.1 Heinrlchls Domino Model......Page 161 6.5.2 Loss Causation Model......Page 162 6.5.4 STEP......Page 165 6.6.1 Reason's Swiss Cheese Model......Page 167 6.6.2 Tripod......Page 169 6.7.1 MTO-Analysls......Page 174 6.7.2 MORT......Page 177 6.8 SYSTEMIC ACCIDENT MODELS......Page 180 6.8.1 Rasmussen's Soclotechnlcal Framework......Page 181 6.8.2 AcclMap......Page 184 6.8.3 Normal Accidents......Page 186 6.8.5 STAMP......Page 189 6.9 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 190 7.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 191 7.2 TYPES OF DATA......Page 192 7.3 ACCIDENT DATA......Page 194 7.3.2 Some Accident and Incident Databases......Page 195 7.4.2 Component Failure Rates......Page 197 7.4.3 Generic Reliability Databases......Page 198 7.4.5 Data Analysis and Data Quality......Page 201 7.4.6 Plant-Specl c Reliability Data......Page 202 7.5.2 Human Error Databases......Page 205 7.5.3 Human Error Probabilities......Page 206 7.7 EXPERT JUDGMENT......Page 207 7.9 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 208 PART II: RISK ASSESSMENTMETHODS ANDAPPLICATIONS ......Page 210 8.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 211 8.1.1 Structure of Method Presentations......Page 212 8.2.1 Objectives......Page 213 8.2.2 Study Team......Page 215 8.2.4 System Description......Page 216 8. 2.5 Familiarization......Page 217 8.3 REPORTING......Page 218 8.3.1 Contents of the Report......Page 220 8.4 UPDATING......Page 222 8.5 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 223 9.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 224 9.1.2 Hazard Identi cation Methods......Page 225 9.2 HAZARD LOG......Page 227 9.3.1 Introduction......Page 230 9.3.3 Analysis Procedure......Page 231 9.3.5 Advantages and Limitations......Page 233 9.4.2 Objectives and Applications......Page 234 9.4.3 Analysis Procedure......Page 235 9.4.6 Advantages and Limitations......Page 242 9.5.2 Objectives and Applications......Page 243 9.5.3 Analysis Procedure......Page 245 9.5.4 Resources and Skills Required......Page 246 9.6.1 Introduction......Page 247 9.6.3 Method Description......Page 248 9.6.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 249 9.6.5 Resources and Skills Required......Page 255 9.6.6 Advantages and Limitations......Page 256 9.7.2 Objectives and Applications......Page 257 9.7.3 Method Description......Page 258 9.7.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 260 9.7.5 Resources and Skills Required......Page 264 9.7.6 Advantages and Limitations......Page 266 9.8.3 Method Description......Page 267 9.8.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 268 9.8.5 Resources and Skills Required......Page 271 9.9 MASTER LOGIC DIAGRAM......Page 273 9.10 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 274 10.1.1 Objectives of the Causal and Frequency Analysis......Page 275 Petri nets......Page 276 10.2.2 Objectives and Applications......Page 277 10.2.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 278 10.2.7 Advantages and Limitations......Page 280 10.3.2 Objectives and Applications......Page 281 10.3.3 Method Description......Page 282 10.3.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 298 10.3.7 Advantages and Limitations......Page 303 10.4.1 Introduction......Page 304 10.4.3 Method Description......Page 305 10.4.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 312 10.4.5 Resources and Skills Required......Page 313 10.5.1 Introduction......Page 314 10.5.3 Method Description......Page 316 10.5.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 323 10.6.1 Introduction......Page 326 10.6.3 Method Description......Page 327 10.6.4 Examples of Petri Net Modeling......Page 330 10.6.5 Mathematical Representation......Page 334 10.6.6 Examples of Mathematical Representation......Page 339 10.6.7 Extensions of Petri Nets......Page 341 10.6.8 Analysis Procedure......Page 342 10.6.10 Advantages and Limitations......Page 344 10.7 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 345 11.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 347 11.1.2 Methods for Development of Accident Scenarios......Page 348 11.2.2 Objectives and Applications......Page 349 11.2.3 Method Description......Page 350 11.2.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 362 11.2.6 Advantages and Limitations......Page 368 11.4 CAUSE-CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS......Page 369 11.5 ESCALATION PROBLEMS......Page 370 11.6 CONSEQUENCE MODELS......Page 371 11.7 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 372 12.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 373 12.2.1 Barriers......Page 374 12.2.2 Barrier Classl cation......Page 375 12.3 BARRIER PROPERTIES......Page 380 12.4 SAFETY INSTRUMENTED SYSTEMS......Page 382 12.4.2 Hlgh- and Low-Demand Mode of Operation......Page 383 12.4.4 Failures and Failure Classi cation......Page 384 12.4.5 Voting Logic......Page 387 12.4.6 lEe 61508......Page 388 12.4.7 Safety Integrity Levels......Page 389 12.4.8 Probability of Failure on Demand......Page 390 12.4.9 Probability of Dangerous Failure per Hour......Page 391 12.5 HAZARD-BARRIER MATRICES......Page 392 12.6 SAFETY BARRIER DIAGRAMS......Page 393 12.7 BOW-TIE DIAGRAMS......Page 394 12.8.3 Analysis Procedure......Page 395 12.9.1 Introduction......Page 398 12.9.3 Method Description......Page 399 12.9.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 401 12.9.5 Standards and Guidelines......Page 406 12.10.1 Introduction......Page 407 12.10.3 Method Description......Page 408 12.10.4 Analysis Procedure......Page 410 12.10.6 Advantages and Limitations......Page 416 12.11 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 417 13.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 418 13.1.1 Human Reliability Analysis......Page 420 13.1.2 Human Errors......Page 421 13.1.4 Human Error Modes......Page 422 13.1.5 Classl cation of Human Errors......Page 423 13.1.6 Performance-In- uenclng Factors......Page 425 13.1.7 Causes of Human Error......Page 427 13.2.1 Hierarchical Task Analysis......Page 429 13.2.2 . Tabular Task Analysis......Page 433 13.3.1 Action Error Mode Analysis......Page 436 13.3.2 Human HAZOP......Page 437 13.3.3 SHERPA......Page 441 Advantages and Limitations......Page 442 13.4 HRA METHODS......Page 443 13.4.1 THERP......Page 445 13.4.2 HEART......Page 454 13.4.3 CREAM......Page 458 13.4.4 Other HRA Methods......Page 462 13.5 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 465 14.2 OBJECTIVES AND APPLICATIONS......Page 466 14.3 ANALYSIS PROCEDURE......Page 467 14.4 RESOURCES AND SKILLS REQUIRED......Page 475 14.6 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 476 15.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 478 15.2.1 Dependent Failures......Page 479 15.2.4 Common-Cause Failures......Page 480 15.3.1 Root Causes......Page 483 15.3.2 Coupling Factors......Page 484 15.4.2 Modeling Approach ......Page 485 15.4.3 Multiplicity of Failures......Page 487 15.5.1 Parallel System 0f Identical Channels ......Page 489 15.5.4 Plant-Specl c Beta-Factors......Page 492 15.6.1 Model Assumption......Page 495 15.6.2 The Binomial Failure Rate Model and Its Extensions......Page 496 15.6.3 The Multiple Greek Letter Model......Page 497 15.6.4 The Multiple Beta-Factor Model......Page 498 15.7 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 504 16.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 505 16.2 UNCERTAINTY......Page 507 16.3 CATEGORIES OF UNCERTAINTY......Page 508 16.3.2 Epistemlc Uncertainty......Page 509 16.4 CONTRIBUTORS TO UNCERTAINTY......Page 510 16.4.1 Model Uncertainty......Page 511 16.4.2 Parameter Uncertainty......Page 512 16.4.3 Completeness Uncertainty......Page 513 16.5 UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION......Page 515 16.5.1 Analytical Methods......Page 516 16.5.2 Monte Carlo Simulation......Page 518 16.6 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS......Page 520 16.7 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 521 17.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 523 17.2.3 Legislation, Standards, and Guidelines......Page 525 17.3.1 Introduction......Page 526 17.3.3 Legislation, Standards, and Guidelines......Page 528 17.3.4 Risk Assessment......Page 529 17.4.2 Important Organizations......Page 530 17.4.3 Legislation, Standards, and Guidelines......Page 531 17.4.4 Risk Assessment......Page 532 17.5.2 Important Organizations......Page 534 17.5.3 Legislation, Standards, and Guidelines......Page 535 17.6.1 Introduction......Page 536 17.6.3 Legislation, Standards, and Guidelines......Page 537 17.7.2 Important Organtzatlons......Page 538 17.7.4 Risk Assessment......Page 539 17.8.2 Important Organizations......Page 540 17.8.4 Risk Assessment......Page 541 17.9.3 Legislation, Standards, and Guidelines......Page 542 17.9.4 Risk Assessment......Page 543 17.10.3 Risk Assessment......Page 544 17.11.1 Environmental Risk......Page 545 17.11.2 Critical Infrastructures......Page 546 17.11.3 Municipal Risk and Vulnerability Assessments......Page 547 17.12 CLOSURE......Page 549 PART III: APPENDICES ......Page 551 A.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 552 A.2.1 Events and Boolean Operations......Page 553 A.2.2 Simple Systems......Page 555 A.3.1 De nltlon of Probability......Page 557 A.3.2 Basic Rules for Probability Calculations......Page 558 A.3.3 Uniform Probability Models......Page 561 A.4.1 Discrete Random Variables......Page 562 A.4.2 Continuous Random Variables......Page 564 A.5.1 Discrete Distributions ......Page 569 A.5.2 Continuous Distributions ......Page 571 A.6 POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION......Page 578 A.6.1 Point Estimation......Page 579 A.6.2 Interval Estimation......Page 581 A.7 BAYESIAN APPROACH......Page 582 A.8.1 Prior Distribution......Page 584 A.8.2 Likelihood......Page 585 A.B.3 Posterior Analysis......Page 588 A.9 ADDITIONAL READING......Page 590 Appendix B......Page 591 Appendix C: Glossary......Page 598 References......Page 613 Index......Page 639 STATISTICS IN PRACTICE......Page 649 An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work. "Although numerous scientific articles have been published discussing various aspects of risk analysis and risk evaluation, very few textbooks exist on the subject. Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications provides undergraduate and graduate students, practitioners, and researchers with a relevant and modern guide to current applications of risk analysis. Three succinct sections discuss the key theory, methods, and applications of risk assessment. All methods for risk analysis are outlined in a uniform fashion: an introduction ; objectives and application ; qualitative and quantitative description ; required resources required ; and related advantages and disadvantages"-- Provided by publisher