Secular Cycles

Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. __Secular Cycles__ elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, __Secular Cycles__ will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography. Princeton University Press Front Cover 1 Title Page 4 Copyright 5 Contents 6 Units and Currencies 10 1. Introduction: The Theoretical Background 12 1.1 Development of Ideas about Demographic Cycles 12 1.2 A Synthetic Theory of Secular Cycles 17 The Demographic Component 17 Social Structure: Commoners, Elites, and Social Mobility 19 Dynamics of Surplus Extraction 22 State Breakdown 24 The Effect of Sociopolitical Instability on Population Dynamics 25 Elite Dynamics during the Depression Phase 28 End of Instability and the Beginning of the New Cycle 29 Phases of the Secular Cycle 30 1.3 Variations and Extensions 32 Factors Affecting Characteristic Lengths of Secular Cycles 32 Ibn Khaldun Cycles 34 The Fractal Nature of Historical Dynamics 36 Generation Cycles 38 Exogenous Forces 39 1.4 Empirical Approaches 40 2. Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150–1485) 46 2.1 Overview of the Cycle 46 Trends in Population and Economy 46 Social Structure and Elite Dynamics 51 State Finances 55 Sociopolitical Instability 56 2.2 The Expansion Phase (1150–1260) 58 2.3 Stag.ation (1260–1315) 60 Rural Population 60 Urbanization 65 The Elites 66 2.4 Crisis (1315–1400) 69 Population Decline 69 The Effect of the Black Death on Social Structure 72 Elites in Crisis 75 The Rise and Fall of State Finances 77 Rising Sociopolitical Instability 78 The Late Medieval Crime Wave 79 2.5 Depression (1400–1485) 80 General Population and Peasant Economy 80 Elite Dynamics 82 State Fiscal Collapse and Onset of the Civil War 83 2.6 Conclusion 88 The Major Predictions of the Demographic-Structural Theory Appear to Be Borne Out by the Data... 88 . . . But the Theory Does Not Capture All the Complexities of the Historical Process 89 3. Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485–1730) 92 3.1 Overview of the Cycle 92 Trends in Population and Economy 92 Social Structure and Elite Dynamics 94 State Finances 96 Sociopolitical Stability 97 3.2 Expansion (1485–1580) 98 General Population and Economy 98 Elites 101 3.3 Stag.ation (1580–1640) 102 Population and Economy 102 Urbanization and Trade 103 Elites 104 The State 106 3.4 Crisis (1640–60) 108 The Onset of the Civil War 108 Economic Consequences of the Civil War 110 Population 111 3.5 Depression (1660–1730) 112 Population Stagnation 112 The Elites 114 Consequences of the Civil War: Changed Social Mood 116 The Turnaround Point: The Mid-eighteenth Century 117 3.6 Conclusion 118 Appendix to Chapter 3: Detrending Population Data (This material is reproduced from Turchin 2005.) 119 England 1450–1800: Population Data 119 Detrending the English Population Data 120 4. Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150–1450) 122 4.1 Overview of the Cycle 122 Population and Economy 123 Social Structure 123 Political Dynamics 125 4.2 Expansion (1150–1250) 126 4.3 Stag.ation (1250–1315) 128 Population and Economy 128 Elite Overproduction 131 The State 132 4.4 Crisis (1315–65) 132 Population Collapse 132 Lords and Peasants 134 State Collapse 135 The Dynamics of Sociopolitical Instability (1290–1365) 137 4.5 Depression (1365–1450) 140 Population Stagnation 140 The Effect of Persistent Warfare 141 Elite Dynamics 142 The Dynamics of Sociopolitical Instability (1365–1450) 146 The Disintegrative Trend Reverses Itself 148 4.6 Conclusion: “A Near Perfect Multi-secular Cycle” 152 5. Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450–1660) 154 5.1 Overview 154 Population and Economy 154 Social Structure 155 The State 156 5.2 Expansion (1450–1520) 158 General Population 158 The Elites 159 The State 159 5.3 Stag.ation (1520–70) 160 Population and Economy 160 Elites 162 Elites and the State 163 5.4 Crisis (1570–1600) 164 5.5 A Case Study: The Norman Nobility 167 The Dynamics of Elite Numbers 167 Causes Underlying the Growth of Elite Numbers 171 Elite Incomes and Wealth 172 Compression of the Elites 176 Conclusions 180 5.6 Depression (1600–1660) 180 Diverging Population Trends between North and South 180 Growth of Top Fortunes 183 Reversal of the Disintegrative Trend 184 5.7 Conclusion 185 6. Rome: The Republican Cycle (350–30 BCE) 187 6.1 Overview of the Cycle 187 A Secular Cycle during the Regal–Early Republic Period? 187 Phases of the Republican Cycle 189 Population Dynamics 190 Social Structure and Elite Dynamics 192 State Finances 195 Sociopolitical Instability 195 6.2 An Unusually Long Expansion (350–180 BCE) 196 6.3 Stag.ation (180–130 BCE) 200 Demographic Trends in the Second Century BCE 200 Economic Trends 203 Elite Dynamics 205 Intraelite Competition 206 State Finances 210 Increasing Social Pressures 211 6.4 The Late Republican Crisis (130–30 BCE) 212 6.5 The End of the Disintegrative Trend 216 6.6 Conclusion 219 7. Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE–285 CE) 222 7.1 Overview of the Cycle 222 Population Dynamics 223 Social Structure and Elites 227 State Finances 228 Sociopolitical Instability 231 7.2 Expansion (27 BCE–96 CE) 235 The Commoners 235 The Elites 236 (De)urbanization 239 7.3 Stag.ation (96–165 CE) 240 Population Pressure and Economic Change 240 Elite Overproduction and Competition 242 7.4 Crisis (165–97 CE) 244 Population 244 Political Crisis 246 7.5 Depression (197–285 CE) 247 7.6 Conclusion 249 8. Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460–1620) 251 8.1 The Fifteenth-Century Crisis 251 8.2 Expansion (1460–1530) 252 8.3 Stag.ation (1530–65) 255 Population and Economy 255 Elite Dynamics 258 Sociopolitical Instability 259 Growth of Taxation 262 8.4 Crisis (1565–1615) 263 The Time of Troubles 267 8.5 Conclusion 269 9. Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620–1922) 272 9.1 Expansion (1620–1800) 272 Population and Economy 272 The Elites 277 The State 281 Regional Variations 284 9.2 Stag.ation (1800–1905) 285 Population and Economy 285 The Effect of the Great Reforms on the Peasants 287 Urbanization 288 Elites 289 The State 293 Sociopolitical Instability 294 The “Fathers-and-Sons” Cycles 296 9.3 Crisis (1905–22) 298 Elite Fragmentation in the Decades before the Revolution 298 The Revolution of 1905 299 Sociopolitical Instability between the Revolutions 303 The February Revolution 308 9.4 Conclusion 310 10. General Conclusions 314 10.1 Population Numbers 314 10.2 Elite Dynamics 315 10.3 The State 317 10.4 Sociopolitical Instability 318 10.5 Are There General Laws of Historical Dynamics? 322 Acknowledgments 326 References Cited 328 Index 352 ISBN-13:,9780691136967 ISBN-13: 9780691136967

Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations—what the authors call secular cycles.

Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.

An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.

Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and, states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations - what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography "Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations - what the authors call secular cycles." "Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications."--BOOK JACKET Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, this book examines a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigates the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. It is of interest to practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.