Taking Chances : Winning with Probability

Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyzes a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, T.V. games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favor. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire? " and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers. Cover 1 Contents 12 1 What is probability? 16 Think straight 18 The inviolable rule 19 Some working methods 20 Long runs 22 Averages and variability 24 2 Lotteries 28 Your chance of winning 29 A winning strategy? 35 More than one ticket? 42 Other lotteries 45 Are the numbers drawn really random? 47 Summary 53 Postscript 54 3 Football Pools, Premium Bonds 56 Football Pools 56 Premium Bonds 61 The best gamble? 65 4 One coin, many games 69 How's your intuition? 69 Game on 71 Penney-ante 74 How long are you in the lead? 79 Postscript 85 Summary 85 Test yourself quiz 86 5 Dice 88 One die 88 Two dice—backgammon 90 Two dice—Monopoly 99 Two dice—craps 102 Three or more dice—totals 103 Four dice—Chevalier de Méré's problem 105 Bettering an opponent 106 Fairground games 107 6 Games with few choices 110 The dating game 111 An easier game 112 A fisherman's tale 113 Back to Table 6.2 114 A fair game? 117 Finding the best strategies 118 Other games 120 Two choices for Roy, many for Colin 126 Counter signals 127 Games animals play 131 The battle of the sexes 135 Postscript 138 Summary 139 Test yourself quiz 141 7 Waiting, waiting, waiting 143 Birthdays 143 The Spoilers (2) 147 Other matches 149 More than one match? 151 Packs of cards (1) 152 Packs of cards (2) 154 Card/coupon collecting 157 The secretary problem 162 8 Let's play best of three 166 Snooker-type games 167 Darts 173 Squash-type games 175 Anyone for tennis? 178 Summary 182 9 TV games 183 Find the lady 183 The Showcase showdown 185 Who wants to be a millionaire? 188 Shafted 193 The Weakest Link 194 Blockbusters 199 Postscript 204 10 Casino games 206 Roulette 207 Casino stud poker 223 Baccarat chemin de fer 232 Other casino games 235 Test yourself quiz 237 11 Bookies, the Tote, spread betting 239 Bookmakers 239 Can you win from the bookies? 250 The Tote 253 Spread betting 255 12 This sporting life 262 Soccer 262 Golf 270 Cricket 272 Tennis 276 Tournament formats 279 13 Lucky for some—miscellanea 286 Cards–whist, bridge 286 Shuffling 292 Dividing the prize 294 Vowel or consonant? 295 Benford's law 298 Guess the other colour 302 At least two Aces? 303 Which player is favoured? 306 The birthday gift 308 Two paradoxes 309 14 Probability for lawyers 314 Conditional probability 316 Baves' Theorem 320 Two fallacies 327 Other matters 329 Test yourself quiz 334 Appendix I. Counting 336 Appendix II. Probability 342 Appendix III. Averages and variability 354 Appendix IV. Goodness-of-fit tests 364 Appendix V. The Kelly strategy 372 Solutions to test yourself quizzes 376 Literature cited 381 Index 384 A 384 B 384 C 384 D 385 E 385 F 385 G 385 H 385 I 386 J 386 K 386 L 386 M 386 N 386 O 386 P 386 Q 386 R 386 S 387 T 387 U 387 V 387 W 388 What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on'Who Wants to be a Millionaire?'and'The Weakest Link', plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers. "What are the odds against winning the Lotto, The Weakest Link, or Who Wants to be a Millionaire? The answer lies in the science of probability, yet many of us are unaware of how this science works. Every day, people make judgements on a wide variety of situations where chance plays a role, including buying insurance, betting on horse-racing, following medical advice - even carrying an umbrella. In Taking Chances, John Haigh guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better-informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on top television shows, plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers."--Jacket

an Easy-to-read, Fun Look At Some Common Probability Traps And Fallacies And How They Can Be Used To Put The Odds In The Reader's Favor. Written By A Math Expert, Who Uses Real-life Examples That Can Be Understood By General Readers, taking Chances: Winning With Probability Shows How To Make Better Betting Decisions In Such Games Of Chance As: Lotteries, Football Pools, Dice, Roulette, Card Games, Tv Game Shows, Horse Racing, And Betting With Bookies. It Will Interest All Those Who Are Interested In Gaining The Extra Advantage When It Comes To Winning The Lottery, Making Money In The Casino, Winning The Football Pool, Or Backing The Right Horse.