Weather Cycles, Second Edition: Real or Imaginary?

This completely updated new edition of Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary? explores in detail the unresolved debate on the existence of weather cycles. The book examines the competing arguments for observed effects being due to natural variability, solar activity and the Earth's orbital parameters. It provides a different perspective on one of the most difficult questions in the current global warming debate: namely, just how much of the recent temperature rise can be attributed to natural causes? Only by understanding how the climate can change of its own accord, and whether observed shifts are part of a set of predictable patterns, will it be possible to reach a reliable judgement on how much impact human activities are having. This book examines the complex analysis required to assess the evidence for cycles with a minimum of mathematics. This comprehensive and balanced account will appeal to the student and expert alike. Half-title 3 Title 5 Copyright 6 Contents 7 Preface 11 Acknowledgements 13 Chapter 1 The search for cycles 15 1.1 Social and economic preamble 16 1.2 History of cycle-searching 20 Chapter 2 Statistical background 28 2.1 Time series 29 2.2 Sampling 31 2.3 Length of record 33 2.4 Quality of data 34 2.5 Smoothing: running means and filters 36 2.6 Harmonic analysis and power spectra 40 2.7 Red, white and pink noise 48 2.8 Wavelet and singular spectrum analysis 50 Chapter 3 Instrumental records 52 3.1 Central England temperature record 54 3.2 Other temperature series 57 3.3 Rainfall records 59 3.4 Chinese rainfall 62 3.5 US rainfall and temperature patterns 64 3.6 Nile floods 66 3.7 Pressure patterns 68 3.8 The Southern Oscillation 72 3.9 Stratospheric winds 77 3.10 Sunspots and the QBO 78 3.11 Shorter-term cycles 87 3.12 Summary 89 Chapter 4 Proxy data 93 4.1 Dendroclimatology 94 4.2 Varves 102 4.3 Pollen records 105 4.4 Corals 107 4.5 A cautionary tale 108 4.6 Ice cores 110 4.7 Glaciers 120 4.8 Ice ages and ocean sediments 121 4.9 Other proxy measurements 129 4.10 Predators and prey 131 4.11 Economic series 132 4.12 Summary 136 Chapter 5 The global climate 137 5.1 Circulation patterns 138 5.2 Radiation balance 145 5.3 Prolonged abnormal weather patterns 149 5.4 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 155 5.5 Modelling El Niño and La Niña 167 5.6 Forecasting ENSO behaviour 171 5.7 Other interannual oscillations 172 5.8 Intraseasonal oscillations 180 5.9 The Great Ocean Conveyor 183 5.10 Summary 185 Chapter 6 Extraterrestrial influences 187 6.1 Solar variability: sunspots, faculae and coronal holes 188 6.2 Tidal forces 205 6.3 Physical links between solar and tidal variations and the weather 210 6.4 Orbital variations 221 Chapter 7 Autovariance and other explanations 225 7.1 Non-linearity 226 7.2 Natural atmospheric variability 229 7.3 Climatic feedback mechanisms 231 7.4 Extraterrestrial explanations 237 7.5 Modelling the ice ages 240 7.6 Devils Hole: a contrary view 245 7.7 Stochastic resonance: chaos illumined by flashes of lightning? 248 Chapter 8 Nothing more than chaos? 252 8.1 Chaos theory 252 8.2 Future changes 261 Appendix A Mathematical background 266 A.1 Measures of variability 266 A.2 Sherman's statistic 269 A.3 Fourier series and Fourier analysis 271 A.4 Calculation of the coefficients of harmonic analyses 273 A.5 Maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) 274 A.6 Smoothing and filtering 277 A.7 Wavelet analysis 283 A.8 Singular spectrum analysis 285 A.9 Noise 286 A.10 Detrending and prewhitening 289 Glossary 291 Annotated bibliography 299 Climatology and climatic change 299 Evidence of periodicities 302 Chaos theory 303 Statistics 304 References 305 Index 322 The unresolved debate on the existence of weather cycles is explored in detail within this book. The evidence for and against the existence of cycles in the weather is examined and the difficulties in establishing the credentials of cycles discussed. The competing arguments involve the natural variability of the climate, the influence of sunspots and the variations in the Earth's orbit. A wide range of events from the ice ages to the El Nino and many examples of apparently cyclic behaviour are presented, with evidence from both instrumental observations and other records such as tree rings, ice cores and ocean sediments. These data are set in the context of statistical analysis, global climatology and the predictability of complex non-linear systems (Chaos Theory). The general conclusion is that, with few exceptions, the case for cycles is not proven, but that further work on the origin of long term fluctuations in the weather is essential to the understanding of the current changes in the Earth's climate. The complex analysis needed to look at the evidence for cycles is examined with the minimum of mathematics, so that this book will appeal to readers with an interest in how the weather works, as well as to the workers in this important and controversial field. "This updated new edition of Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary? explores in detail the unresolved debate on the existence of weather cycles. The book examines the competing arguments for observed effects being due to natural variability, solar activity and the Earth's orbital parameters." "Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary? provides a different perspective on one of the most difficult questions in the current global-warming debate: namely, just how much of the recent temperature rise can be attributed to natural causes? Only by understanding how the climate can change of its own accord, and whether observed shifts are a part of a set of predictable patterns, will it be possible to reach a reliable judgement on how much impact human activities are having. This book examines the complex analysis required to assess the evidence for cycles with a minimum of mathematics. Its comprehensive and balanced account will appeal to the student and expert alike."--Jacket

This completely updated edition explores in detail the unresolved debate on the existence of weather cycles. It provides a different perspective on one of the most difficult questions in the current global warming debate: how much of the recent temperature rise can be attributed to natural causes? The book examines the complex analysis required to assess the evidence for cycles with a minimum of mathematics. First Edition Hb (1992): 0-521-38178-9 First Edition Pb (1995): 0-521-47869-3

Throughout recorded history the fluctuations of the weather have played a major part in human life.