Global Catastrophic Risks

The implication of the Amazon listing that Sir Martin Rees was the lead author of this book was enough to have me buy it. Upon receiving the book, however, it became clear that Rees had written the Foreword, but nothing more. The publisher, Oxford Univ. Press, is up front about this. Amazon is not. That said, the book would be worth while from the editors' introductory chapter alone. Acknowledgements 10 Martin J. Rees. Foreword 11 Contents 15 1. Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkoviс. Introduction 23 1.1 Why? 23 1.2 Taxonomy and organization 24 1.3 Part I: Background 27 1.4 Part II: Risks from nature 31 1.5 Part III: Risks from unintended consequences 32 Part I. Background 43 2. Fred C. Adams . Long-term astrophysical processes 43 2.1 Introduction: physical eschatology 43 2.2 Fate of the Earth 43 2.3 Isolation of the local group 45 2.4 Collision with Andromeda 45 2.5 The end of stellar evolution 46 2.6 The era of degenerate remnants 47 2.7 The era of black holes 48 2.8 The Dark Era and beyond 49 2.9 Life and information processing 50 2.10 Conclusion 50 Suggestions for further reading 51 References 51 3. Christopher Wills. Evolution theory and the future of humanity 54 3.1 Introduction 54 3.2 The causes of evolutionary change 54 3.3 Environmental changes and evolutionary changes 55 3.3.1 Extreme evolutionary changes 56 3.3.2 Ongoing evolutionary changes 57 3.3.3 Changes in the cultural environment 59 3.4 Ongoing human evolution 62 3.4.1 Behavioural evolution 63 3.5 Future evolutionary directions 66 Suggestions for further reading 68 4. James J. Hughes. Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats 72 4.1 Introduction 72 4.2 Types of millennialism 72 4.3 Messianism and millenarianism 74 4.4 Positive or negative teleologies: utopianism and apocalypticism 74 4.5 Contemporary techno-millennialism 75 4.6 Techno-apocalypticism 77 4.7 Symptoms of dysfunctional millennialism in assessing future scenarios 79 4.8 Conclusions 80 Suggestions for further reading 80 5. Eliezer Yudkowsky. Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks 85 5.1 Introduction 85 1: Availability 85 2: Hindsight bias 86 3: Black Swans 87 4: The conjunction fallacy 88 5: Confirmation bias 90 6: Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination 92 7: The affect heuristic 94 8: Scope neglect 95 9: Calibration and overconfidence 96 10: Bystander apathy 98 A final caution 99 Conclusion 100 6. Milan M. Cirkovic. Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks 106 6.1 Introduction: anthropic reasoning and global risks 106 6.3 Doomsday Argument 112 6.4 Fermi's paradox 113 6.5 The Simulation Argument 118 6.6 Making progress in studying observation selection effects 119 7. Yacov Y. Haimes. Systems-based risk analysis 121 7.1 Introduction 121 7.2 Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors of the economy 122 7.3 Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of scenario structuring 123 7.4 Phantom system models for risk management of emergent multi-scale systems 125 7.5 Risk of extreme and catastrophic events 127 8. Peter Taylor. Catastrophes and insurance 135 8.1 Introduction 135 8.2 Catastrophes 136 8.3 What the business world thinks 138 8.4 Insurance 138 8.5 Pricing the risk 141 8.6 Catastrophe loss models 142 8.7 What is risk? 143 8.8 Price and probability 145 8.9 The age of uncertainty 146 8.10 New techniques 148 8.11 Conclusion: against the gods? 148 9. Richard A. Posner. Public policy towards catastrophe 150 Part II. Risks from nature 162 10. Michael R. Rampino. Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import 163 10.2 Atmospheric impact of a super-eruption 163 10.3 Volcanic winter 164 10.4 Possible environmental effects of a super-eruption 166 10.5 Super-eruptions and human population 167 10.6 Frequency of super-eruptions 168 10.7 Effects of a super-eruptions on civilization 168 10.8 Super-eruptions and life in the universe 169 11. William Napier. Hazards from comets and asteroids 175 11.1 Something like a huge mountain 175 11.2 How often are we struck? 175 11.3 The effects of impact 179 11.4 The role of dust 181 11.5 Ground truth? 183 12. Arnon Dar. Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment 187 12.1 Introduction 187 12.2 Radiation threats 187 12.2.2 Solar flares 190 12.3 Cosmic ray threats 194 PART III. RISKS FROM UNTINTENDED CONSEQUENSES 203 13. David Frame and Myles R. Allen. Climate change and global risk 203 13.1 Introduction 203 13.2 Modelling climate change 204 13.3 A simple model of climate change 204 13.5 Defining dangerous climate change 210 13.6 Regional climate risk under anthropogenic change 211 13.7 Climate risk and mitigation policy 212 13.8 Discussion and conclusions 214 14. Edwin Dennis Kilbourne. Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future 218 14.1 Introduction 218 14.2 The baseline: the chronic and persisting burden of infectious disease 218 14.3 The causation of pandemics 219 14.4 The nature and source of the parasites 219 14.6 Nature of the disease impact: high morbidity, high mortality, or both 222 14.11 Plagues of historical note 225 14.12 Contemporary plagues and pandemics 226 14.14 Discussion and conclusions 228 15. Eliezer Yudkowsky. Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk 232 15.1 Introduction 232 1: Anthropomorphic bias 232 2: Prediction and design 235 3: Underestimating the power of intelligence 235 4: Capability and motive 237 5: Friendly AI 239 6: Technical failure and philosophical failure 240 7: Rates of intelligence increase 243 8: Hardware 247 9: Threats and promises 248 10: Local and majoritarian strategies 251 11: AI versus human intelligence enhancement 254 12: Interactions of AI with other technologies 257 13: Making progress on Friendly AI 258 Conclusion 260 16. Frank Wilczek. Big troubles, imagined and real 264 16.1 Why look for trouble? 264 16.2 Looking before leaping 264 16.4 Wondering 273 17. Robin Hanson. Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction 276 Social Growth 277 Social Collapse 278 The Distribution of Disaster 279 Existential Disasters 280 PART IV. Risks from hostile acts. 287 18. Joseph Cirincion. The continuing threat of nuclear war 288 18.1 Introduction 288 18.2 Calculating Armageddon 291 18.3 The current nuclear balance 296 18.4 The good news about proliferation 299 18.5 A comprehensive approach 299 18.6 Conclusion 301 19. Gary Ackerman and William С. Potter. Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril 303 19.1 Introduction 303 19.2 Historical recognition of the risk of nuclear terrorism 304 19.3 Motivations and capabilities for nuclear terrorism 305 19.5 Consequences of nuclear terrorism 319 19.6 Risk assessment and risk reduction 323 20. Ali Noun and Christopher F. Chyba. Biotechnology and biosecurity 336 20.1 Introduction 336 20.2 Biological weapons and risks 337 20.3 Biological weapons are distinct from other so-called weapons of mass destruction 338 20.4 Benefits come with risks 339 20.5 Biotechnology risks go beyond traditional virology, micro- and molecular biology 341 20.6 Addressing biotechnology risks 342 20.7 Catastrophic biological attacks 346 20.8 Strengthening disease surveillance and response 348 20.9 Towards a biologically secure future 351 21. Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder. Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk 357 21.2 Molecular manufacturing 358 21.3 Mitigation of molecular manufacturing risks 365 21.4 Discussion and conclusion 367 22. Bryan Caplan. The totalitarian threat 371 22.1 Totalitarianism: what happened and why it (mostly) ended 371 22.2 Stable totalitarianism 372 22.3 Risk factors for stable totalitarianism 375 22.4 Totalitarian risk management 378 Authors' biographies 382 8 Acknowledgements......Page 10 Martin J. Rees. Foreword......Page 11 Contents......Page 15 1.1 Why?......Page 23 1.2 Taxonomy and organization......Page 24 1.3 Part I: Background......Page 27 1.4 Part II: Risks from nature......Page 31 1.5 Part III: Risks from unintended consequences......Page 32 2.2 Fate of the Earth......Page 43 2.4 Collision with Andromeda......Page 45 2.5 The end of stellar evolution......Page 46 2.6 The era of degenerate remnants......Page 47 2.7 The era of black holes......Page 48 2.8 The Dark Era and beyond......Page 49 2.10 Conclusion......Page 50 References......Page 51 3.2 The causes of evolutionary change......Page 54 3.3 Environmental changes and evolutionary changes......Page 55 3.3.1 Extreme evolutionary changes......Page 56 3.3.2 Ongoing evolutionary changes......Page 57 3.3.3 Changes in the cultural environment......Page 59 3.4 Ongoing human evolution......Page 62 3.4.1 Behavioural evolution......Page 63 3.5 Future evolutionary directions......Page 66 Suggestions for further reading......Page 68 4.2 Types of millennialism......Page 72 4.4 Positive or negative teleologies: utopianism and apocalypticism......Page 74 4.5 Contemporary techno-millennialism......Page 75 4.6 Techno-apocalypticism......Page 77 4.7 Symptoms of dysfunctional millennialism in assessing future scenarios......Page 79 Suggestions for further reading......Page 80 1: Availability......Page 85 2: Hindsight bias......Page 86 3: Black Swans......Page 87 4: The conjunction fallacy......Page 88 5: Confirmation bias......Page 90 6: Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination......Page 92 7: The affect heuristic......Page 94 8: Scope neglect......Page 95 9: Calibration and overconfidence......Page 96 10: Bystander apathy......Page 98 A final caution......Page 99 Conclusion......Page 100 6.1 Introduction: anthropic reasoning and global risks......Page 106 6.3 Doomsday Argument......Page 112 6.4 Fermi's paradox......Page 113 6.5 The Simulation Argument......Page 118 6.6 Making progress in studying observation selection effects......Page 119 7.1 Introduction......Page 121 7.2 Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors of the economy......Page 122 7.3 Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of scenario structuring......Page 123 7.4 Phantom system models for risk management of emergent multi-scale systems......Page 125 7.5 Risk of extreme and catastrophic events......Page 127 8.1 Introduction......Page 135 8.2 Catastrophes......Page 136 8.4 Insurance......Page 138 8.5 Pricing the risk......Page 141 8.6 Catastrophe loss models......Page 142 8.7 What is risk?......Page 143 8.8 Price and probability......Page 145 8.9 The age of uncertainty......Page 146 8.11 Conclusion: against the gods?......Page 148 9. Richard A. Posner. Public policy towards catastrophe......Page 150 Part II. Risks from nature......Page 162 10.2 Atmospheric impact of a super-eruption......Page 163 10.3 Volcanic winter......Page 164 10.4 Possible environmental effects of a super-eruption......Page 166 10.5 Super-eruptions and human population......Page 167 10.7 Effects of a super-eruptions on civilization......Page 168 10.8 Super-eruptions and life in the universe......Page 169 11.2 How often are we struck?......Page 175 11.3 The effects of impact......Page 179 11.4 The role of dust......Page 181 11.5 Ground truth?......Page 183 12.2 Radiation threats......Page 187 12.2.2 Solar flares......Page 190 12.3 Cosmic ray threats......Page 194 13.1 Introduction......Page 203 13.3 A simple model of climate change......Page 204 13.5 Defining dangerous climate change......Page 210 13.6 Regional climate risk under anthropogenic change......Page 211 13.7 Climate risk and mitigation policy......Page 212 13.8 Discussion and conclusions......Page 214 14.2 The baseline: the chronic and persisting burden of infectious disease......Page 218 14.4 The nature and source of the parasites......Page 219 14.6 Nature of the disease impact: high morbidity, high mortality, or both......Page 222 14.11 Plagues of historical note......Page 225 14.12 Contemporary plagues and pandemics......Page 226 14.14 Discussion and conclusions......Page 228 1: Anthropomorphic bias......Page 232 3: Underestimating the power of intelligence......Page 235 4: Capability and motive......Page 237 5: Friendly AI......Page 239 6: Technical failure and philosophical failure......Page 240 7: Rates of intelligence increase......Page 243 8: Hardware......Page 247 9: Threats and promises......Page 248 10: Local and majoritarian strategies......Page 251 11: AI versus human intelligence enhancement......Page 254 12: Interactions of AI with other technologies......Page 257 13: Making progress on Friendly AI......Page 258 Conclusion......Page 260 16.2 Looking before leaping......Page 264 16.4 Wondering......Page 273 17. Robin Hanson. Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction......Page 276 Social Growth......Page 277 Social Collapse......Page 278 The Distribution of Disaster......Page 279 Existential Disasters......Page 280 PART IV. Risks from hostile acts.......Page 287 18.1 Introduction......Page 288 18.2 Calculating Armageddon......Page 291 18.3 The current nuclear balance......Page 296 18.5 A comprehensive approach......Page 299 18.6 Conclusion......Page 301 19.1 Introduction......Page 303 19.2 Historical recognition of the risk of nuclear terrorism......Page 304 19.3 Motivations and capabilities for nuclear terrorism......Page 305 19.5 Consequences of nuclear terrorism......Page 319 19.6 Risk assessment and risk reduction......Page 323 20.1 Introduction......Page 336 20.2 Biological weapons and risks......Page 337 20.3 Biological weapons are distinct from other so-called weapons of mass destruction......Page 338 20.4 Benefits come with risks......Page 339 20.5 Biotechnology risks go beyond traditional virology, micro- and molecular biology......Page 341 20.6 Addressing biotechnology risks......Page 342 20.7 Catastrophic biological attacks......Page 346 20.8 Strengthening disease surveillance and response......Page 348 20.9 Towards a biologically secure future......Page 351 21. Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder. Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk......Page 357 21.2 Molecular manufacturing......Page 358 21.3 Mitigation of molecular manufacturing risks......Page 365 21.4 Discussion and conclusion......Page 367 22.1 Totalitarianism: what happened and why it (mostly) ended......Page 371 22.2 Stable totalitarianism......Page 372 22.3 Risk factors for stable totalitarianism......Page 375 22.4 Totalitarian risk management......Page 378 Authors' biographies......Page 382 In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 Leading Experts Look At The Gravest Risks Facing Humanity In The 21st Century, Including Natural Catastrophes, Nuclear War, Terrorism, Global Warming, Biological Weapons, Totalitarianism, Advanced Nanotechnology, General Artificial Intelligence, And Social Collapse. The Book Also Addresses Over-arching Issues - Policy Responses And Methods For Predicting And Managing Catastrophes. Bostrom Pioneered The Concept Of Existential Risk And The Simulation Argument. He Developed The First Mathematically Explicit Theory Of Observation Selection Effects And Is The Author Of A Number Of Seminal Studies On The Implications Of Future Technologies.--jacket. Long-term Astrophysical Processes / Fred C. Adams -- Evolution Theory And The Future Of Humanity / Christopher Wills -- Millennial Tendencies In Responses To Apocalyptic Threats / James J. Hughes -- Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment Of Global Risks / Eliezer Yudkowsky -- Observation Selection Effects And Global Catastrophic Risks / Milan M. Ćirković -- Systems-based Risk Analysis / Yacov Y. Haimes -- Catastrophes And Insurance / Peter Taylor -- Public Policy Toward Catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Super-volcanism And Other Geophysical Processes Of Catastrophic Import / Michael R. Rampino -- Hazards From Comets And Asteroids / William Napier -- Influence Of Supernovae, Gamma-ray Bursts, Solar Flares, And Cosmic Rays On The Terrestrial Environment / Arnon Dar -- Climate Change And Global Risk / David Frame And Myles R. Allen -- Plagues And Pandemics : Past, Present, And Future / Edwin Dennis Kilbourne -- Artificial Intelligence As A Positive And Negative Factor In Global Risk / Eliezer Yudkowsky -- Big Troubles, Imagined And Real / Frank Wilczek -- Catastrophe, Social Collapse, And Human Extinction / Robin Hanson -- The Continuing Threat Of Nuclear War / Joseph Cirincione -- Catastrophic Nuclear Terrorism : A Preventable Peril / Gary Ackerman And William C. Potter -- Biotechnology And Biosecurity / Ali Nouri And Christopher F. Chyba -- Nanotechnology As Global Catastrophic Risk / Chris Phoenix And Mike Treder -- The Totalitarian Threat / Bryan Caplan. Edited By Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Ćirković. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.