Catastrophe : Risk and Response

This is a very interesting book but it didn't quite grab me. It is a very academic book, almost like a text book. This book would make a better lecture. Most of his meat in the book comes from economic cost benefit analysis. That information probably comes across better in a lecture. First the author lays out various threats to not only the country but to the world. He does donate a lot to the end of the world stuff like an asteroid hitting the earth. Then he talks a lot about how to express that danger. He also goes into how to express that risk. That is an interesting thing. The expression of the risk helps society express the worth of solutions. The author goes into standard explanation of present value vs. future value. His method of explaining that response is really interesting. For example he explains how society puts a price value on lives. His last chapter is a departure of the book style. He has some interesting solutions. Those solutions is a big departure for a judge, but nothing to radical. Catastrophes, whether natural or man-made, that could destroy the human race are often dismissed as alarmist or fanciful, the stuff of science fiction. In fact the risk of such disasters is real, and growing. A collision with an asteroid that might kill a quarter of humanity in 24 hours and the rest soon after; irreversible global warming that might flip, precipitating "snowball earth;" voraciously replicating nanomachines; a catastrophic accident in a particle accelerator that might reduce the earth to a hyperdense sphere 100 meters across; a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists; even conquest by superintelligent robots-all these potential extinction events, and others, are within the realm of the possible and warrant serious thought about assessment and prevention. They are attracting the concern of reputable scientists--but not of the general public or the nation's policymakers. How should the nation and the world respond to disaster possibilities that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, people find it hard to wrap their minds around? Richard Posner shows that what is needed is a fresh, thoroughly interdisciplinary perspective that will meld the insights of lawyers, economists, psychologists, and other social scientists with those of the physical sciences. Responsibility for averting catastrophe cannot be left either to scientists or to politicians and other policymakers ignorant of science. As in many of his previous books, Posner brings law and the social sciences to bear on a contemporary problem-in this case one of particular urgency. Weighing the risk and the possible responses in each case, Posner shows us what to worry about and what to dismiss, and discusses concrete ways of minimizing the most dangerous risks. Must we yield a degree of national sovereignty in order to deal effectively with global warming? Are limitations on our civil liberties a necessary and proper response to the danger of bioterror attacks? Would investing more heavily in detection and interception systems for menacing asteroids be money well-spent? How far can we press cost-benefit analysis in the design of responses to world-threatening events? Should the institutional framework of science policy be altered? we need educational reform? Is the interface of law and science awry? These are but a few of the issues canvassed in this fascinating, disturbing, and necessary book. Contents......Page 10 Introduction......Page 14 What is catastrophe?......Page 16 The organization of this book......Page 23 Some useful distinctions......Page 26 Natural catastrophes......Page 32 Scientifc accidents......Page 41 Other unintended man-made catastrophes......Page 54 Intentional catastrophes......Page 82 Catastrophic synergies and lesser-included catastrophes......Page 100 2 Why so little is being done about the catastrophic risks......Page 103 Cultural factors......Page 104 Psychological factors......Page 130 Economic factors......Page 134 3 How to evaluate the catastrophic risks and the possible responses to them......Page 150 The difference cost-benefit analysis can make: the case of RHIC......Page 151 A modest version of the precautionary principle......Page 159 Discounting to present value......Page 161 Taxes, subsidies, and options: the case of global warming......Page 166 Valuing human lives......Page 176 Risk versus uncertainty......Page 182 Coping with uncertainty......Page 186 Politics, expertise, and neutrality: RHIC revisited......Page 198 Summary......Page 207 4 How to reduce the catastrophic risks......Page 210 Institutional reforms......Page 211 Fiscal tools: a recap......Page 226 Some hypothetical regulatory policies......Page 227 Conclusion......Page 256 Notes......Page 278 B......Page 326 C......Page 327 G......Page 328 L......Page 329 P......Page 330 S......Page 331 V......Page 332 Z......Page 333 Contents 10 Introduction 14 What is catastrophe? 16 The organization of this book 23 Some useful distinctions 26 1 What are the catastrophic risks, and how catastrophic are they? 32 Natural catastrophes 32 Scientifc accidents 41 Other unintended man-made catastrophes 54 Intentional catastrophes 82 Catastrophic synergies and lesser-included catastrophes 100 2 Why so little is being done about the catastrophic risks 103 Cultural factors 104 Psychological factors 130 Economic factors 134 3 How to evaluate the catastrophic risks and the possible responses to them 150 The difference cost-benefit analysis can make: the case of RHIC 151 A modest version of the precautionary principle 159 Discounting to present value 161 Taxes, subsidies, and options: the case of global warming 166 Valuing human lives 176 Risk versus uncertainty 182 Coping with uncertainty 186 Politics, expertise, and neutrality: RHIC revisited 198 Summary 207 4 How to reduce the catastrophic risks 210 Institutional reforms 211 Fiscal tools: a recap 226 Some hypothetical regulatory policies 227 Conclusion 256 Notes 278 Index 326 A 326 B 326 C 327 D 328 E 328 F 328 G 328 H 329 I 329 J 329 K 329 L 329 M 330 N 330 O 330 P 330 Q 331 R 331 S 331 T 332 U 332 V 332 W 333 Y 333 Z 333 Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks. Introduction What is catastrophe?The organization of this bookSome useful disctinctions1. What are the catastrohpic risks, and how catastrophic are they? Natural catastrophesScientific accidentsOther unintended man-made catastrophesIntentional catastrophesCatastrophic synergies and lesser-included catastrophes2. Why so little is being done about the catastrophic risks Cultural factorsPsychological factorsEconomic factors3. How to evaluate the catastrophic risks and the possible responses to them The difference cost-benefit analysis can make: the case of RHICA modest version of the precaution What Are Catastrophic Risks, And How Catastrophic Are They? -- Why So Little Is Being Done About The Catastrophic Risks -- How To Evaluate The Catastrophic Risks And The Possible Responses To Them -- How To Reduce The Catastrophic Risks. Richard A. Posner. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Posner considers how we can better prepare for the chance of an event - such as voraciously self-replicating nanomachines, a world-ending accident in a high-energy partical accelerator or an asteroid collision - so catastrophic that we find it hard to conceive of the consequences The 1918-1919 flu pandemic is a reminder that nature may yet do us in.