دانلود کتاب Long-Run Growth Forecasting

Long-term growth forecasts are a bit like wrong weather forecasts. You are always wiser afterwards. Because even institutions such as the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank are still struggling with large discrepancies in their forecasting, Stefan Bergheim took another investigating look at the most widely used forecast models. His knowledgeable and very readable tour d’horizon of recent research on economic growth culminates in the presentation of his own model – a mix of the best from all economic worlds. The whole book undoubtedly benefits from Bergheim’s experience as both an analyst and researcher. He consequently follows his credo that economic research should by no means be treated as a solely retrospective matter, but instead as a science that bears reliable information for future developments. In line with this refreshingly undogmatic perspective he repeatedly pays reference to the limits of empirical research on economic growth. To this end, his study will prove a veritable treasure especially for young researchers looking for current research themes. What is the impact of R&D spending or the quality of political institutions on the long-term economic growth of a country? These and other questions highlight the crucial nature and timeless of future research on long-term economic growth. Stefan Bergheim has managed to combine a detailed empirical discussion with the great debates about the pillars of our material well-being. By doing so he followed a principle that he always kept in mind when developing his own economic forecast model: Keep it simple sophistically (KISS). Well done.